Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff70…78ab sports 195 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$569 (+12%) realized +$578 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate32%59W / 127L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day18.7pace
Fees−$61est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$73
14 days+$71
30 days−$87
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$1,011
other 39% −$286
world 14% −$88
crypto 7% −$73
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -2.8% -12.1% 30% 17% -2.3%
≤30d 161 -4.9% -14.0% 27% 16% -12.8%
≤90d 186 -2.6% -11.9% 32% 21% +2.8%
all 186 -2.6% -11.9% 32% 21% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 21% +2.8%
10% -20.3% 17% -7.1%
15% -28.0% 11% -16.0%
20% -35.1% 9% -24.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 57% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$8 · ×3.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$578
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses59 / 127
Est. fees paid−$61
Open positions9
Markets (closed)186 / 195
History coverage69d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ $14 $6 −$8 (-58%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 48¢ 48¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 18 $5 −$1 -24%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $55 −$4 -7%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $19 +$27 +140%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 -2%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$4 +87%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 $0 -2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 +$1 +7%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $5 −$1 -20%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -45%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $25 −$2 -9%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +10%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -20%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 $0 +4%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $7 −$1 -11%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -23%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $4 $0 -3%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $5 −$4 -68%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $6 $0 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $6 +$1 +11%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 $0 -8%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $9 +$2 +25%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 $0 -7%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3 $0 -2%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $5 +$7 +141%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 $0 -25%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $12 −$2 -16%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $5 −$1 -22%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $4 −$1 -17%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -19%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4 $0 -9%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 -5%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $16 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 $0 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$4 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 22m
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes $4 34m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 45¢ $2 59m
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $4 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 45¢ $2 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 74¢ $6 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 45¢ $29 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $32 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 46¢ $6 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes $5 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 46¢ $6 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $9 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $5 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $6 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $5 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $5 1h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $8 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $11 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $6 2h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $5 2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 50¢ $2 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 50¢ $2 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 50¢ $3 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 3h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $6 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 70¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.64 · official $44.34 (match) · 1333 history records