Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff70…ac9b sports 562 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$10 (+0%) realized −$48 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate53%289W / 254L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day92.4pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$65now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$58
14 days−$20
30 days−$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$10
other 12% −$46
crypto 7% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 150 -10.7% -19.2% 55% 41% -17.3%
≤30d 543 -0.1% -9.6% 53% 38% -11.3%
≤90d 543 -0.1% -9.6% 53% 38% -11.3%
all 543 -0.1% -9.6% 53% 38% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.6% 38% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 32% -19.8%
15% -26.1% 25% -27.5%
20% -33.4% 19% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$65
Realized−$48
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses289 / 254
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions19
Markets (closed)543 / 562
History coverage20d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day92.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 543 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 88¢ 88¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? No 90¢ 92¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Under 85¢ 84¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Under 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Under 67¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 Under 79¢ 58¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Over 60¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+67%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? No 74¢ 76¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? No 87¢ 86¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? No 85¢ 84¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Under 97¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos NC Dinos 46¢ 56¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+21%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) DR Congo 69¢ 70¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Over 96¢ 96¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Under 41¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 38¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$3 +66%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) Jun 15 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$1 +32%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 −$4 -24%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +69%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 $0 +6%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +4%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $6 +$3 +48%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 171.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +51%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $1 +$2 +214%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: FC Bayern Munchen (-12.5) Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $1 −$1 -90%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 $0 -2%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $3 $0 -13%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $6 $0 -4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$6 +112%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +104%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $3 $0 -7%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$2 +41%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 12 $1 +$1 +144%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $4 +$3 +64%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 172.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +96%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +12%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 94¢ $3 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 20¢ $1 1h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $1 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $1 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 1.5 BUY Under 79¢ $3 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 2h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 2h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $1 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $3 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $1 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 53¢ $1 3h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 BUY Over 53¢ $3 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $3 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 3h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 70¢ $1 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 15¢ $1 4h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) BUY Los Angeles Angels 49¢ $1 4h
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-4.5) BUY Tampa Bay Rays 56¢ $3 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 85¢ $3 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 85¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.52 · official $64.14 (match) · 2336 history records