Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:06:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FF 0xff71…8ab7 other 104 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate12%12W / 89L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$8
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$11
politics 20% −$4
sports 7% −$14
economics 4% −$1
culture 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
world 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +33.4% +20.7% 25% 25% -6.9%
≤30d 17 +7.8% -2.5% 18% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 101 -4.0% -13.2% 12% 9% -9.7%
all 101 -4.0% -13.2% 12% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 9% -9.7%
10% -21.5% 9% -18.3%
15% -29.1% 8% -26.2%
20% -36.0% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$1 · ×5.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses12 / 89
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)101 / 104
History coverage85d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $78 $78 +$0 (+0%)
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 59¢ 60¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $25 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $209 $0 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $6 +$8 +134%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $28 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 10 $196 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $21 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $57 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $80 $0 +0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $23 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $200 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 24 $24 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 22 $24 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 15 $355 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 14 $184 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 13 $171 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 12 $171 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $575 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 10 $182 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 09 $175 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $171 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $180 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $761 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $358 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $342 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 03 $539 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $366 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $380 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $361 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $352 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $183 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $356 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Apr 19 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $183 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $192 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $188 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $541 −$1 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 15 $175 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 14 $185 $0 +0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $177 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $368 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $26 1h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 59¢ $14 7h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 24h
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 30h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 42¢ $6 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in June? BUY No 99¢ $78 5d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 6d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 7d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 7d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 7d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 8d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 8d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $21 12d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $21 12d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $30 13d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $29 14d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 16d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 16d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $23 17d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $23 18d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $31 19d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $31 19d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $39 19d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $40 19d
Will Solana reach $100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $46 22d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $24 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.21 · official $117.21 (match) · 295 history records