Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:06:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FF 0xff72…0448 sports 253 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$23 (+2%) realized +$24 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate65%160W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$27
14 days−$14
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% −$79
other 25% +$84
crypto 1% −$5
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 -13.5% -21.8% 54% 50% -3.8%
≤30d 248 -4.6% -13.7% 65% 52% -9.5%
≤90d 248 -4.6% -13.7% 65% 52% -9.5%
all 248 -4.6% -13.7% 65% 52% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 52% -9.5%
10% -22.0% 34% -18.1%
15% -29.5% 19% -26.0%
20% -36.4% 13% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$24
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses160 / 88
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions5
Markets (closed)248 / 253
History coverage20d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 248 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 50¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Piracicaba: Gustavo Almeida vs Paulo Dos Santos Gustavo Almeida 64¢ 62¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-19%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $18 +$9 +51%
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 24 $6 −$3 -44%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 24 $3 +$1 +26%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 24 $3 −$3 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $5 +$3 +58%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +18%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $3 +$1 +38%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 23 $3 +$2 +50%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos Jun 23 $3 +$1 +33%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm Jun 23 $2 $0 +19%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $3 +$1 +42%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $2 +$1 +43%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 +$1 +33%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2 +$2 +89%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $24 +$28 +121%
Piracicaba: Juan Bautista Torres vs Alex Hernandez Jun 22 $10 +$3 +33%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +19%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $10 $0 +2%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $2 +$1 +38%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Solana Sierra vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 22 $3 +$1 +35%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Magdalena Frech Jun 22 $4 +$1 +29%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $2 +$1 +31%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $3 +$1 +22%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $2 $0 +23%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +46%
Exact Score: New Zealand 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $2 +$7 +325%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 +$5 +95%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $3 +$1 +31%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 21 $2 $0 +16%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $8 −$1 -6%
Mallorca Championships: Mariano Navone vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 21 $3 −$2 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Piracicaba: Gustavo Almeida vs Paulo Dos Santos BUY Gustavo Almeida 64¢ $4 4h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Seattle Mariners 87¢ $3 5h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 78¢ $3 5h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 81¢ $12 5h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 6h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 67¢ $3 6h
Panama vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY No 59¢ $5 6h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 78¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Japan 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 11h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $5 12h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $1 13h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $3 13h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 13h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Sara Bejlek vs Laura Siegemund BUY Laura Siegemund 71¢ $3 16h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 71¢ $3 16h
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Rune Eaters 30¢ $2 16h
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 16h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $2 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 16h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 16h
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $5 16h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $3 16h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (BO3) - DraculaN BUY Infinite 32¢ $2 19h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jasmine Paolini vs Tatjana Maria BUY Jasmine Paolini 63¢ $3 19h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back (BO5) - The International Southeast Asia Clos BUY OG 74¢ $3 19h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 72¢ $3 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.74 · official $30.74 (match) · 544 history records