Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:46:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xff74…5de4
weather · 933 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$1,121 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$716 · open +$129
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$363
Realized+$716
Unrealized+$129
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses157 / 621
Open positions42
Markets (closed)778 / 933
History coverage33d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day101.9
Drawdown63%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 42 History 778 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,041
7 days−$866
14 days−$200
30 days+$676
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Yes 17¢ 100¢ $14 $83 +$69 (+485%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Yes 47¢ 100¢ $38 $82 +$43 (+114%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 100¢ $18 $43 +$25 (+139%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 14? Yes 42¢ 100¢ $10 $24 +$14 (+138%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $23 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Yes 3¢ 100¢ $1 $22 +$21 (+3280%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? Yes 36¢ 40¢ $17 $19 +$2 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? Yes 42¢ 48¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 15? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $7 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? Yes 27¢ 100¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+270%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? Yes 11¢ 19¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+71%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Yes 38¢ 31¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? Yes 6¢ 16¢ $2 $4 +$3 (+173%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 15? Yes 31¢ 27¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? Yes 35¢ 36¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 15? Yes 11¢ 21¢ $1 $3 +$1 (+83%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 15? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 15? Yes 30¢ 42¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+40%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? Yes 15¢ 9¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-44%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on May 10? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 7? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 14°C on May 13? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 12? Jun 14 $46 −$46 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 18°C on May 6? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ma Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 28? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 58-59°F on Ma Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on April 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 3? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on April 30? Jun 14 $64 −$64 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 5? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C or higher on May 10? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 22? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 9? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on April 27? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 2? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 11? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 6? Jun 14 $28 −$28 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 10? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 12? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 10°C on May 12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on May 12? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 5? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 4? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 12? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 8? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Ma Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on May 9? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ma Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on April 28 Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on May 7? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on May 3? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 13? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on April 21? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 4? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on May 11? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on May 10? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C or higher on May 12? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on May 9? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on May 9? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on May 13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on May 13? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 30? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ma Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on May 10? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 66-67°F on May 6? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on April 28 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$2,062
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 58m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 58m
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 59m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 15? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 15? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 40¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 5h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C or higher on June 15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 246 -57.7% -61.7% 11% 11% -57.7%
≤30d 671 -20.3% -27.9% 21% 20% +1.8%
≤90d 778 -19.5% -27.1% 20% 19% +0.5%
all 778 -19.5% -27.1% 20% 19% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover101.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.1% 19% +0.5%
10% ← realistic here -34.1% 19% -9.1%
15% -40.5% 18% -17.9%
20% -46.3% 18% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $363.37 · official $362.56 (match) · 3500 history records