Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:58:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff77…413e sports 164 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%19W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 26% −$4
sports 25% −$3
other 19% +$4
crypto 8% −$3
culture 7% −$1
economics 7% −$1
world 4% $0
tech 3% $0
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 0% -9.9%
all 164 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses19 / 145
Open positions0
Markets (closed)164 / 164
History coverage168d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 164 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 29 $47 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 20 $41 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $55 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $128 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 15 $42 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 19 $235 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 19 $51 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 19 $307 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 19 $244 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 19 $71 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 19 $88 −$1 -1%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $56 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 27, 2026 (ET)? Feb 19 $53 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $126 $0 -0%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 19 $92 +$1 +1%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 19 $170 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $125 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 18 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $53 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Feb 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $175 $0 -0%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 16 $50 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 16 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 16 $74 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 16 $164 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $60 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $117 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of February? Feb 16 $106 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $92 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 16 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 13 $69 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 13 $63 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 13 $70 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 12 $111 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 12 $95 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $41 1h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $41 5h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 99¢ $41 8d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $41 8d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $55 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $55 19d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $49 30d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $49 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? SELL No 95¢ $41 44d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? BUY No 96¢ $42 44d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $55 129d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $55 129d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 97¢ $51 129d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 97¢ $51 129d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $51 129d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $51 129d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $54 129d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 96¢ $55 129d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? SELL No 97¢ $50 129d
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? BUY No 97¢ $51 129d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $9 129d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 92¢ $45 129d
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $9 129d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 92¢ $9 129d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 92¢ $54 129d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $51 129d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $51 129d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $51 129d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $51 129d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 98¢ $55 129d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 609 history records