Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff77…1be5 sports 495 markets active 0h ago coverage 45d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 45d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$781 (-29%) realized −$757 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%165W / 298L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$35
14 days−$147
30 days−$170
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$147
other 18% −$25
politics 10% −$31
crypto 2% −$5
economics 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 -5.1% -14.2% 33% 28% -14.1%
≤30d 337 -6.8% -15.7% 34% 31% -17.0%
≤90d 463 -6.6% -15.5% 36% 33% -16.3%
all 463 -6.6% -15.5% 36% 33% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 33% -16.3%
10% -23.6% 30% -24.3%
15% -31.0% 28% -31.7%
20% -37.8% 25% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$757
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses165 / 298
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions32
Markets (closed)463 / 495
History coverage45d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 32 History 463 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-7%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 55¢ 56¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 97¢ 97¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Luis Arraez hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? No 97¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Democrats win the Kansas governor race in 2026? No 72¢ 71¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026? Yes 69¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 19? Yes 78¢ 69¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Austin Beutner win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Rick Caruso win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 87¢ 82¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) Detroit Tigers 32¢ 45¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+41%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? No 93¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Los Angeles Angels 44¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Lorenzo Giustino 15¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Asaad Alnajjar win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-76%)
Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 34¢ 39¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+15%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? Yes 19¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-45%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Over 40¢ 20¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Over 45¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $2 +$1 +40%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 16 $2 $0 -13%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $2 −$2 -89%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Waymo launch in Detroit by June 30 2026? Jun 16 $0 $0 -27%
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $7 −$3 -40%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $2 $0 -4%
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele Jun 15 $6 −$1 -21%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 15 $11 +$3 +29%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 −$1 -22%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$16 +307%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$1 -16%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 14 $4 −$1 -16%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$1 -11%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $2 $0 +18%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 $0 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $17 −$1 -6%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chip Keating win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary el Jun 14 $21 $0 +1%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $6 −$2 -40%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $32 −$1 -3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 $0 -9%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Doosan Bears Jun 13 $5 $0 +3%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $4 −$2 -44%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $5 $0 -8%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$1 -21%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Billy Harris Jun 12 $5 +$10 +197%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $17 −$2 -13%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 12 $4 +$5 +114%
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Jun 12 $4 −$2 -46%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $11 +$19 +172%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $4 $0 +3%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria Jun 12 $4 +$3 +63%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $5 +$8 +158%
Libema Open: Caty McNally vs Solana Sierra Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Will Dalourny Nemorin be the Democratic nominee for NY-15? Jun 12 $32 $0 +0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $8 $0 -2%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -19%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $8 +$1 +15%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 11 $8 −$4 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers SELL Minnesota Twins 62¢ $3 12m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Colorado Rockies 29¢ $2 12m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $6 19m
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Lorenzo Giustino 15¢ $2 27m
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 39m
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Kansas City Royals 5¢ $0 1h
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 32¢ $2 1h
Will Sweden reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $5 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 43¢ $2 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Colorado Rockies 32¢ $2 1h
Will Waymo launch in Detroit by June 30 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Will Egypt win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $6 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 1h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1 2h
Will Luis Arraez hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season? BUY No 97¢ $5 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 35¢ $2 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 44¢ $2 2h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 18¢ $1 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $2 3h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 44¢ $2 3h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston SELL Hugo Gaston 29¢ $2 3h
Asuncion 2: Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez vs Eduardo Ribeiro BUY Lorenzo Joaquin Rodriguez 37¢ $2 4h
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston BUY Hugo Gaston 29¢ $2 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 19? BUY No 93¢ $2 11h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on June 19? BUY Yes 78¢ $5 12h
Will Phil Weiser win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary ele SELL Yes 29¢ $5 15h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 22h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $5 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.92 · official $83.34 (match) · 3500 history records