Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:48:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

FF 0xff79…6891 politics 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 117d

TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip

Net edge-10%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate17%3W / 15L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$86per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Kalshi-fit61%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$0

7 days−$0

14 days−$0

30 days−$1

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-9.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-0.1%	-9.6%	0%	0%	-9.6%
≤30d	4	-0.2%	-9.7%	0%	0%	-9.7%
≤90d	11	-0.1%	-9.6%	9%	0%	-9.6%
all	18	-0.1%	-9.6%	17%	0%	-9.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-9.6%	0%	-9.6%
10%	-18.2%	0%	-18.2%
15%	-26.1%	0%	-26.1%
20%	-33.4%	0%	-33.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 75% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +0% → late -0% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.29 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$0

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)17%

Wins / losses3 / 15

Open positions0

Markets (closed)18 / 18

History coverage117d

Avg bet$86

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 18 Trades

no open positions

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Jun 29	$85	$0	-0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Jun 23	$85	$0	-0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$85	$0	-0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 07	$85	$0	-0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	May 28	$85	$0	-0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	May 19	$85	$0	-0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	May 15	$86	$0	-0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?	May 13	$86	$0	-0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Apr 16	$87	$0	-0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	Apr 12	$87	$0	+0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Apr 10	$87	$0	+0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Mar 30	$87	$0	-0%
Will Tennessee win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	Mar 22	$87	$0	+0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Mar 17	$87	$0	-0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Mar 15	$87	$0	+0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin	Mar 12	$87	$0	+0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m	Mar 10	$87	$0	+0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Mar 05	$87	$0	+0%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	98¢	$85	1h
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	98¢	$85	12h
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	SELL No	100¢	$85	5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	BUY No	100¢	$85	6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	97¢	$85	12d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	98¢	$85	12d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	98¢	$85	21d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	98¢	$85	22d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	SELL No	100¢	$85	31d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	BUY No	100¢	$85	32d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$85	41d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$85	41d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$85	45d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$86	45d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?	SELL No	100¢	$86	47d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?	BUY No	100¢	$86	48d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	SELL No	99¢	$87	73d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY No	100¢	$87	73d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	SELL No	100¢	$87	78d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	BUY No	100¢	$87	78d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	SELL No	100¢	$87	80d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	BUY No	100¢	$87	80d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	98¢	$87	91d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	98¢	$87	91d
Will Tennessee win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	SELL No	99¢	$87	98d
Will Tennessee win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?	BUY No	99¢	$87	99d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL No	100¢	$87	104d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY No	100¢	$87	104d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	SELL No	99¢	$87	106d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	BUY No	99¢	$87	106d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 51 history records