Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:51:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xff7c…b233
world · 344 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$30,982 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,176 · open −$2,884
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$22,219
Realized+$9,176
Unrealized−$2,884
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses139 / 349
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions212
Markets (closed)488 / 344
History coverage50d
Avg bet$473
Trades / day65.7
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit87%
Chart Positions 212 History 488 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,910
7 days−$2,612
14 days−$2,428
30 days+$5,849
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 70¢ 82¢ $1,579 $1,861 +$283 (+18%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 No 69¢ 86¢ $1,072 $1,330 +$257 (+24%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 55¢ $1,052 $1,249 +$197 (+19%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Yes 58¢ 68¢ $1,048 $1,242 +$194 (+18%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 61¢ 60¢ $1,277 $1,236 −$40 (-3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 66¢ $895 $913 +$18 (+2%)
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 84¢ $730 $797 +$67 (+9%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $15,000 by end of December? No 95¢ 96¢ $762 $768 +$5 (+1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 78¢ 64¢ $831 $679 −$152 (-18%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? No 50¢ 71¢ $473 $669 +$196 (+42%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 64¢ 44¢ $750 $507 −$243 (-32%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? Yes 28¢ 17¢ $841 $504 −$337 (-40%)
Will US unemployment reach at least 6.0% in 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $422 $443 +$22 (+5%)
Will inflation reach more than 10% in 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $422 $432 +$9 (+2%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Yes 42¢ 26¢ $665 $421 −$245 (-37%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 15? No 95¢ 99¢ $398 $416 +$18 (+5%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of December? No 88¢ 96¢ $370 $403 +$33 (+9%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $630 $367 −$263 (-42%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 92¢ 100¢ $307 $335 +$28 (+9%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 47¢ 42¢ $368 $326 −$42 (-11%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Yes 54¢ 31¢ $535 $308 −$226 (-42%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $12,000 by end of December? No 93¢ 96¢ $277 $286 +$9 (+3%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $229 $278 +$49 (+21%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 79¢ 92¢ $205 $240 +$35 (+17%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 51¢ 38¢ $279 $211 −$68 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Houthis successfully target shipping by March 31? Jun 14 $5 −$9 -171%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 end of February? Jun 14 $65 −$65 -100%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Will Iran strike Dimona by April 30? Jun 14 $110 −$116 -105%
US forces in Venezuela by September 30? Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) close at $250–265 in 2025? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jun 14 $69 −$66 -96%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$10 -156%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $70 by end of March? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump deploys National Guard in D.C. by Monday? Jun 14 $0 +$1 +1045%
Will anyone say "Palestine" during South Park e6 s27? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$2 -219%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will gas hit (High) $5.00 by March 31? Jun 14 $41 −$94 -230%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 February 9-15? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Will anyone say "Netanyahu" during South Park e6 s27? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 20 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 15? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -128%
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by December 31? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday? Jun 14 $3 +$18 +593%
North Korea missile launch by February 28? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 Week of April 6 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 27 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will France, UK or Germany strike Iran by January 31? Jun 14 $2 −$7 -335%
Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jun 14 $7 −$6 -89%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Longest Bill Ackman tweet of all time by Wednesday? Jun 14 $1 $0 -7%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by March 20? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -101%
Will Trump say "Kamala" or "Harris" during the 2026 State of the Union Jun 14 $2 +$45 +2597%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -39%
Will Sudan's Emergency Response Rooms win the Nobel Peace Prize in 20 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 19? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80K in August? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $360 end of March? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $92,000 November 17-23? Jun 14 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) hit $320 before 2026?? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Witkoff meet with Iranian officials by February 28? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
2026 U.S. Senate Election: Republican Odds under 60% by March 31? Jun 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 59% +$3,731
politics 14% +$9,646
finance 12% −$2,255
other 10% −$828
sports 2% +$1,946
economics 2% +$93
tech 1% −$145
crypto 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 16¢ $26 1m
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 2m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $50 29m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 67¢ $85 29m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 60¢ $300 36m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $234 36m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 36m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 67¢ $67 42m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 78¢ $310 55m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? BUY No 27¢ $88 56m
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 80¢ $705 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 82¢ $1,223 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 23¢ $152 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL No 23¢ $124 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $225 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $62 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $142 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $21 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $63 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 9¢ $39 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 14¢ $46 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $35 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 316 +0.9% -8.7% 20% 16% -9.3%
≤30d 409 +12.6% +1.9% 26% 19% -0.4%
≤90d 488 +20.8% +9.3% 28% 21% +1.8%
all 488 +20.8% +9.3% 28% 21% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover65.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.3% 21% +1.8%
10% ← realistic here -1.1% 16% -8.0%
15% -10.7% 13% -16.9%
20% -19.4% 11% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,219.40 · official $22,233.52 (match) · 3500 history records