Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:52:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff80…c755 other 208 markets active 2h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$165 (-13%) realized −$160 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%70W / 125L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$287now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$45
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$62
sports 22% +$14
crypto 18% −$83
politics 2% −$22
tech 2% −$10
economics 1% −$4
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 14 +34.6% +21.8% 50% 50% -20.6%
≤90d 15 +25.7% +13.7% 47% 47% -21.0%
all 195 -10.5% -19.1% 36% 32% -25.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 32% -25.9%
10% -26.8% 26% -33.0%
15% -33.9% 24% -39.5%
20% -40.4% 20% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$287
Realized−$160
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses70 / 125
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)195 / 208
History coverage209d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 195 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $52 $52 +$0 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 22¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $50 $43 −$7 (-14%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +262%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$18 +59%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$9 +291%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $30 −$28 -92%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $3 +$8 +262%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +165%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +43%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Apr 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -77%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026? Jan 08 $1 −$1 -40%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 06 $1 +$2 +164%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 06 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 05 $3 −$1 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 03 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 02 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Jan 01 $5 −$3 -64%
Will Google have the third-best AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will any Google Gemini 3 model score at least 1500 on LMArena by Decem Jan 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will xAI have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025? Jan 01 $2 −$2 -100%
Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 31 $3 −$3 -87%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 31 $2 −$1 -66%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Dec 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Dec 30 $1 $0 -47%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026 Dec 30 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 30 $3 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 29 $2 −$1 -52%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026 Dec 29 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 29 $2 +$2 +98%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 26 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 26 $2 +$1 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 26 $1 $0 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 20 Dec 26 $1 $0 +12%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports (BO3) Dec 24 $1 −$1 -68%
Rockets vs. Clippers Dec 24 $3 $0 +16%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 24 $1 $0 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 23 $2 +$1 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 23 $1 +$1 +125%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 20 Dec 23 $1 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $21 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 12d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 13d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 13d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? A BUY 31¢ $10 14d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AN BUY 15¢ $3 14d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 14d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-1 BUY 54¢ $5 14d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 14d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 14d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $5 14d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $30 14d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 14d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? AND Will United States win on 2026-06-1 BUY 26¢ $3 14d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $43 15d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $286.95 · official $286.95 (match) · 519 history records