Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff80…8cb5 sports 350 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$12,773 (-13%) realized −$12,929 · open +$156
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%132W / 214L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$288per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$266est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$635now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$213
7 days−$1,986
14 days−$2,036
30 days−$2,419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% −$20,519
other 5% +$1,644
crypto 0% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +68.0% +52.0% 27% 27% -54.0%
≤30d 46 +48.3% +34.2% 26% 26% -54.7%
≤90d 106 +2.5% -7.3% 29% 29% -43.1%
all 346 -4.3% -13.4% 38% 38% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 38% -27.4%
10% -21.7% 38% -34.4%
15% -29.2% 36% -40.7%
20% -36.2% 33% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$307 vs −$280 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$635
Realized−$12,929
Unrealized+$156
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses132 / 214
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$266
Open positions4
Markets (closed)346 / 350
History coverage130d
Avg bet$288
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 35¢ 50¢ $210 $297 +$87 (+41%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Over 49¢ 81¢ $111 $185 +$74 (+67%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Over 25¢ 30¢ $100 $120 +$20 (+20%)
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Yes 15¢ $58 $33 −$25 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 196 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $213 +$291 +137%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$111 +109%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $172 −$169 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $306 −$301 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $122 −$120 -98%
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan Jun 16 $149 −$147 -98%
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston Jun 15 $201 −$199 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $91 +$111 +123%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $112 −$110 -98%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $204 −$200 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Diana Shnaider Jun 15 $203 +$197 +97%
Set Handicap: Kalinina (-1.5) vs Sun (+1.5) Jun 15 $98 +$117 +119%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 14 $32 −$31 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $74 −$72 -98%
Modena: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 14 $184 −$72 -39%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $104 +$80 +78%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Tessa Brockmann vs Alycia Pa Jun 14 $121 −$17 -14%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $140 −$137 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $26 +$113 +442%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Team to Take First Corner Jun 13 $53 −$52 -98%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 13 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$120 +2328%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $245 −$240 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $112 −$110 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $153 −$150 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $305 −$298 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -95%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $192 −$190 -99%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $150 +$49 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $102 +$47 +46%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $391 −$385 -98%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $50 −$49 -98%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 06 $51 −$2 -3%
Henan FC vs. Zhejiang Zhiye FC: O/U 1.5 May 30 $85 −$84 -99%
Palermo FC vs. US Catanzaro 1929: Draw at halftime? May 20 $69 −$67 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Emma Navarro vs Iva Jovic May 20 $139 −$137 -98%
América de Cali vs. CA Tigre: O/U 2.5 May 20 $106 −$105 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5 May 20 $3 +$3 +82%
Fluminense FC vs. Club Bolívar: O/U 3.5 May 19 $212 −$212 -100%
AC Monza vs. SS Juve Stabia: O/U 2.5 May 19 $97 +$219 +226%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Rebeka Masarova vs Maria Lourdes Car May 19 $218 −$215 -98%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Diane Parry vs Emma Raducanu May 19 $396 −$391 -99%
Brose Bamberg vs. Ratiopharm Ulm May 18 $120 +$80 +66%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 09 $127 −$125 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $60 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $113 1h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto $3 1h
Asuncion 2: Nick Hardt vs Matias Soto BUY Matias Soto 11¢ $12 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $102 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $112 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $102 1h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Rinky Hijikata 100¢ $504 1h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 42¢ $101 1h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 41¢ $112 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $213 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 BUY Under 46¢ $172 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $103 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $102 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $10 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 40¢ $102 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $112 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $10 3h
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 44¢ $2 2d
Brescia: Carole Monnet vs Martina Trevisan BUY Martina Trevisan 47¢ $147 2d
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Anna Blinkova 66¢ $99 3d
Nottingham Open: Anna Blinkova vs Taylah Preston BUY Anna Blinkova 56¢ $102 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $202 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $91 3d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 3d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 26¢ $20 3d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 27¢ $31 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $634.74 · official $714.91 · 1139 history records