Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:49:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FF 0xff86…4329 crypto 1344 markets active 0h ago coverage 145d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 145d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,287 (-1%) realized −$1,288 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate81%1102W / 259L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day18.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$574
7 days−$580
14 days−$578
30 days−$613
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$836
crypto 44% −$656
weather 0% −$1
other 0% −$6
economics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 -14.2% -22.4% 60% 13% -76.4%
≤30d 629 -3.1% -12.4% 85% 12% -36.5%
≤90d 1109 -2.2% -11.5% 80% 16% -28.3%
all 1361 -2.5% -11.8% 81% 16% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 16% -11.5%
10% -20.2% 8% -20.0%
15% -27.9% 5% -27.7%
20% -35.0% 3% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$19 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$1,288
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses1102 / 259
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1361 / 1344
History coverage145d ⚠
Avg bet$72
Trades / day18.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1361 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Down 87¢ 94¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 96 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Big Bash League: Hobart Hurricanes vs Brisbane Heat (Game 1) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +314%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 8AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +485%
Will Australia win? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +382%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$3 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET Jun 16 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $8 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $9 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.69 · official $8.69 (match) · 3500 history records