Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff87…f5f7 sports 305 markets active 1d ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,603 (-3%) realized −$1,603 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate61%186W / 119L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$153per market
Trades / day29.6pace
Fees−$396est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$234
7 days+$415
14 days−$450
30 days−$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$960
crypto 7% −$812
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -4.9% -14.0% 73% 58% -1.9%
≤30d 145 -3.1% -12.4% 61% 57% -10.9%
≤90d 305 -3.0% -12.2% 61% 49% -13.0%
all 305 -3.0% -12.2% 61% 49% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.2% 49% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -20.6% 29% -21.3%
15% -28.3% 25% -28.9%
20% -35.3% 23% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$96 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,603
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses186 / 119
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$396
Open positions0
Markets (closed)305 / 305
History coverage59d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day29.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 305 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $62 −$62 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti Jun 19 $64 +$11 +18%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato Jun 19 $430 +$94 +22%
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 19 $70 +$5 +8%
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Max Purcell Jun 19 $123 −$123 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Aoran Wang Jun 19 $69 +$6 +9%
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Naho Sato Jun 19 $62 +$13 +20%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $476 +$5 +1%
ITF Klosters: Tina Manescu vs Adrienn Nagy Jun 18 $52 +$6 +11%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 18 $230 −$230 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Noir Verse (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $329 +$46 +14%
ITF Taipei: Naho Sato vs Feier Hu Jun 17 $645 +$105 +16%
ITF Taipei: Kayo Nishimura vs Sara Saito Jun 16 $62 −$62 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Sena Okabe vs Hikaru Shiraishi Jun 16 $68 +$7 +10%
ITF Sapporo: Chisato Kanemaki vs Aishi Das Jun 16 $130 +$20 +15%
ITF Tokyo: Naoki Nakagawa vs Leo Vithoontien Jun 16 $183 +$42 +23%
ITF Zhengzhou: Meng-Yi Chen vs Chenting Zhu Jun 16 $194 +$32 +16%
Poznan: Duje Ajdukovic vs Dalibor Svrcina Jun 16 $62 +$13 +20%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - NODWIN C Jun 16 $63 +$12 +19%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $537 +$463 +86%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
ITF Monastir: Victoria Milovanova vs Aspen Schuman Jun 15 $55 +$45 +82%
Counter-Strike: WRAITH PCIFIC vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Jun 15 $243 +$207 +85%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Julia Avdeeva vs Eva Vedder Jun 15 $230 +$220 +96%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Detonate (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 14 $425 −$425 -100%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $48 −$48 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Sato vs Yuno Kitahara Jun 13 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: Club 333 vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playof Jun 13 $64 −$64 -100%
Counter-Strike: Wanted Goons vs Overtake (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoff Jun 13 $85 −$85 -100%
ITF Maanshan: Uisung Park vs Chan-Yeong Oh Jun 12 $223 +$27 +12%
ITF Tokyo: Kayo Nishimura vs Ayumi Miyamoto Jun 12 $473 −$473 -100%
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Varvara Panshina Jun 11 $24 +$26 +109%
Ilkley: Tereza Martincova vs Katie Swan Jun 11 $23 +$27 +114%
ITF Monastir: Dominick Mosejczuk vs Jacob Bradshaw Jun 11 $20 +$30 +146%
Bratislava (Doubles): Donski/Paulson vs Pokorny/Sachko Jun 11 $29 −$29 -100%
ITF Vaasa: Nikola Slavic vs Karl Friberg Jun 11 $28 +$22 +82%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 11 $23 +$27 +119%
ITF Martos: Marcos Castro Fabra vs Manel Lazaro Juncadella Jun 11 $122 −$122 -100%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Michael Zheng Jun 11 $262 +$188 +72%
ITF Wichita: Duncan Chan vs Jie Cui Jun 11 $219 −$219 -100%
Stuttgart Open (Doubles): Reymond/Sanchez vs Altmaier/Jebens Jun 10 $755 +$110 +14%
ITF Monastir: Andrea Roots vs Isabella De Micco Padula Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
ITF Tokyo: Mao Mushika vs Shiho Tsujioka Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
ITF Los Angeles: Veronica Miroshnichenko vs Anne-Christine Lutkemeyer Jun 10 $26 −$1 -4%
ITF Tokyo: Yusuke Takahashi vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 10 $28 +$22 +82%
ITF Los Angeles: Lucca Liu vs Vignesh Gogineni Jun 10 $59 −$59 -100%
Cattolica: Federico Bondioli vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 09 $28 −$28 -100%
Modena: Andrea Lazaro Garcia vs Julia Grabher Jun 09 $30 −$30 -100%
Ilkley: Billy Harris vs Clement Chidekh Jun 09 $53 +$47 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The Inter BUY Yangon Galacticos 83¢ $5 26h
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Masamichi Imamura 93¢ $70 27h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ana Giraldi Requena vs Marianne Argyrokastriti BUY Marianne Argyrokastriti 85¢ $64 28h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 83¢ $62 30h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato BUY Ksenia Zaytseva 82¢ $62 30h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato BUY Ksenia Zaytseva 82¢ $62 30h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato BUY Ksenia Zaytseva 82¢ $62 30h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato BUY Ksenia Zaytseva 82¢ $62 30h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato BUY Ksenia Zaytseva 82¢ $62 30h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato BUY Ksenia Zaytseva 82¢ $62 30h
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Ksenia Zaytseva vs Emma Ottavia Ghirardato BUY Ksenia Zaytseva 82¢ $62 30h
ITF Maanshan: Matthew Dellavedova vs Aoran Wang BUY Matthew Dellavedova 92¢ $69 30h
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Max Purcell BUY Max Purcell 82¢ $62 30h
ITF Tokyo: Jake Delaney vs Max Purcell BUY Max Purcell 82¢ $62 30h
ITF Taipei: Dayeon Back vs Naho Sato BUY Dayeon Back 83¢ $62 31h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 99¢ $15 38h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 99¢ $15 38h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 99¢ $8 38h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 99¢ $66 38h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 99¢ $74 38h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 99¢ $41 38h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 99¢ $33 38h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 99¢ $74 38h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 99¢ $17 38h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 99¢ $57 38h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 99¢ $15 38h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY 100 Thieves 99¢ $59 38h
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 76¢ $57 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 76¢ $57 2d
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY Ground Zero 76¢ $57 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2072 history records