Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T20:07:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FF 0xff88…601d sports 256 markets active 1h ago coverage 340d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$2,882 (+19%) realized +$2,861 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%138W / 111L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$128est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$203now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$455
7 days+$2,139
14 days+$3,332
30 days+$2,685
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$2,553
other 46% +$286
politics 0% −$65
world 0% +$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +45.2% +31.4% 65% 62% +32.7%
≤30d 110 +29.0% +16.7% 61% 60% +18.7%
≤90d 248 +17.9% +6.6% 55% 53% +7.5%
all 249 +18.1% +6.8% 55% 53% +7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.8% 53% +7.6%
10% -3.4% 50% -2.7%
15% -12.7% 48% -12.1%
20% -21.3% 44% -20.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$38 · ×1.32 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.67 per $1 lost it wins $1.67
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

340d coverage
Net worth$203
Realized+$2,861
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses138 / 111
Est. fees paid−$128
Open positions7
Markets (closed)249 / 256
History coverage340d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 249 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Evann Guessand: 1+ shots Yes 39¢ 50¢ $78 $100 +$22 (+28%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? No 50¢ 57¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+14%)
Japan vs. Sweden: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Under 54¢ 56¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+3%)
Oumar Diakité: 5+ shots Yes 90¢ 50¢ $21 $11 −$9 (-45%)
Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots Yes 12¢ 50¢ $1 $6 +$4 (+317%)
Jordy Caicedo: 5+ shots Yes 95¢ 50¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Jordy Caicedo: 3+ shots No 36¢ 50¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Frantzdy Pierrot: 2+ shots Jun 25 $11 +$5 +52%
Neymar Jr: 3+ shots Jun 25 $10 +$10 +104%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $153 +$377 +247%
Scotland vs. Brazil: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $67 +$63 +93%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $211 +$189 +90%
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $331 +$255 +77%
Désiré Doué: 1+ shots Jun 22 $120 −$71 -59%
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $86 +$214 +250%
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $102 +$88 +86%
Federico Viñas: 4+ shots Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Dani Olmo: 2+ shots Jun 22 $1 +$2 +186%
Darwin Núñez: 2+ shots Jun 22 $13 +$21 +163%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $208 +$197 +95%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $81 +$230 +285%
Gavi Paez: 1+ shots Jun 21 $13 +$17 +133%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $1,437 +$249 +17%
Dani Olmo: 3+ shots Jun 21 $320 −$320 -100%
Nilson Angulo: 3+ shots Jun 21 $0 +$1 +203%
Anthony Valencia: 3+ shots Jun 21 $27 +$54 +203%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $231 +$263 +114%
Anthony Valencia: 1+ shots Jun 20 $18 −$18 -100%
Assan Ouedraogo: 3+ shots Jun 20 $2 +$1 +61%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $222 +$106 +48%
Jamal Musiala: 3+ shots Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Jamal Musiala: 5+ shots Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Brian Brobbey: 2+ shots Jun 20 $2 +$1 +61%
Leroy Sané: 2+ shots Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Deniz Undav: 1+ shots Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Kai Havertz: 5+ shots Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Cody Gakpo: 4+ shots Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Wang vs. Sobolieva: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 20 $13 +$9 +68%
Alexander Isak: 4+ shots Jun 20 $25 −$24 -98%
Ismael Saibari: 2+ shots Jun 20 $43 +$45 +104%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots Jun 19 $79 +$21 +27%
Brahim Díaz: 3+ shots Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots Jun 19 $62 −$62 -100%
Gio Reyna: 2+ shots Jun 19 $74 −$74 -100%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 19 $9 $0 +5%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $104 +$196 +188%
Cyle Larin: 4+ shots Jun 19 $19 +$30 +156%
Edin Džeko: 1+ shots Jun 18 $10 +$5 +49%
Ermin Mahmić: 1+ shots Jun 18 $440 +$60 +14%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots Jun 18 $3 +$3 +90%
Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Remo Freuler: 2+ shots Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Pavel Šulc: 5+ shots Jun 18 $11 +$3 +27%
Figueira Da Foz: Darja Vidmanova vs Elena Micic Jun 18 $9 +$6 +62%
Nottingham Open (Doubles): Sutjiadi/Tjen vs Maleckova/Skoch Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Florian Wirtz: 3+ shots BUY Yes 12¢ $1 46m
Oumar Diakité: 5+ shots BUY Yes 90¢ $21 1h
Jordy Caicedo: 5+ shots BUY Yes 93¢ $5 1h
Jordy Caicedo: 3+ shots BUY No 36¢ $2 1h
Jordy Caicedo: 5+ shots BUY Yes 97¢ $5 1h
Evann Guessand: 1+ shots BUY Yes 39¢ $78 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY No 50¢ $51 1h
Frantzdy Pierrot: 2+ shots BUY No 66¢ $11 22h
Neymar Jr: 3+ shots BUY No 49¢ $10 23h
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 56¢ $25 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 56¢ $15 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 56¢ $97 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 56¢ $90 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 56¢ $19 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 56¢ $10 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 56¢ $300 2d
Jordan vs. Algeria: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 56¢ $24 2d
Désiré Doué: 1+ shots SELL Yes 63¢ $2 2d
Désiré Doué: 1+ shots SELL Yes 63¢ $13 2d
Désiré Doué: 1+ shots SELL Yes 63¢ $2 2d
Désiré Doué: 1+ shots SELL Yes 63¢ $2 2d
Désiré Doué: 1+ shots SELL Yes 63¢ $5 3d
Désiré Doué: 1+ shots SELL Yes 63¢ $26 3d
Désiré Doué: 1+ shots BUY Yes 50¢ $120 3d
Federico Viñas: 4+ shots BUY Yes 35¢ $4 3d
Darwin Núñez: 2+ shots BUY No 38¢ $12 3d
Darwin Núñez: 2+ shots BUY No 38¢ $1 3d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals SELL No 100¢ $1,686 4d
Dani Olmo: 3+ shots BUY Yes 64¢ $320 4d
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals BUY No 83¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $203.39 · official $203.40 (match) · 626 history records