Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:16:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff8c…142e sports 231 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$344 (-3%) realized −$344 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate52%120W / 110L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$86est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$87
14 days−$325
30 days−$398
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$513
other 8% +$89
crypto 4% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -6.1% -15.0% 51% 34% -18.4%
≤30d 211 -5.5% -14.5% 56% 36% -12.6%
≤90d 230 -10.7% -19.2% 52% 34% -13.0%
all 230 -10.7% -19.2% 52% 34% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 34% -13.0%
10% -27.0% 25% -21.4%
15% -34.0% 19% -28.9%
20% -40.5% 15% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$17 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$344
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses120 / 110
Est. fees paid−$86
Open positions1
Markets (closed)230 / 231
History coverage83d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $48 +$3 +6%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $46 +$1 +3%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $16 +$15 +92%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $9 −$6 -59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $55 −$32 -59%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $13 −$4 -28%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $27 +$18 +67%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 +$19 +216%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $11 −$2 -20%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $32 +$21 +66%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $17 −$9 -53%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $42 −$25 -59%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $13 +$10 +77%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $23 −$9 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 19 $22 $0 +2%
ITF Irvine: Veronica Miroshnichenko vs Kaitlyn Carnicella Jun 19 $79 −$4 -5%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $55 −$28 -52%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $54 −$53 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $43 +$7 +17%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $36 +$10 +28%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $34 +$3 +8%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $22 +$12 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 +$4 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 +$6 +49%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$10 -51%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$6 -70%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -81%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 +$2 +25%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 $0 -4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $34 −$27 -79%
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Antonia Rivera Jun 13 $39 −$5 -12%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $150 −$111 -74%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $2 +$4 +178%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +22%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $131 −$101 -78%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $511 −$316 -62%
ITF Tokyo: Naoya Honda vs Alan Magadan Jun 13 $394 +$26 +6%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Jangjun Kim Jun 13 $383 +$11 +3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $136 +$149 +109%
ITF Cuiaba: Noelia Zeballos vs Mell Elizabeth Reasco Gonzalez Jun 12 $207 +$27 +13%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $172 −$132 -76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $27 31m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 99¢ $52 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 96¢ $50 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $50 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 91¢ $48 3h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $48 13h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $46 13h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) SELL Japan 99¢ $31 13h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 51¢ $16 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 98¢ $4 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $4 14h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 36¢ $4 17h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 19h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $9 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 96¢ $9 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 42¢ $9 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $13 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $45 23h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 98¢ $46 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $27 26h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 38h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 31¢ $9 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 38¢ $9 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $11 40h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $11 40h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $8 40h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) SELL Brazil 27¢ $8 40h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 55¢ $17 41h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 29¢ $17 41h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.67 · official $26.68 (match) · 535 history records