Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:28:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

FF 0xff8d…c814 other 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$1,608 (+47%) realized +$1,533 · open +$75

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip

Net edge+37%after slip

Net WR42%break-even

Win rate42%8W / 11L

Drawdown27%max

Avg bet$108per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Fees−$6est.

Kalshi-fit16%portable

Net worth$1,274now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$1,314

7 days+$1,291

14 days+$1,291

30 days+$1,291

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +42%

net ROI/market (all)+37.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	18	+44.6%	+30.8%	39%	39%	+45.7%
≤30d	18	+44.6%	+30.8%	39%	39%	+45.7%
≤90d	19	+51.6%	+37.2%	42%	42%	+50.4%
all	19	+51.6%	+37.2%	42%	42%	+50.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+37.2%	42%	+50.4%
10%	+24.0%	42%	+36.0%
15%	+12.1%	42%	+22.9%
20%	+1.1%	32%	+10.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 62% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +66% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +52% · $-wt +66% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -12% → late +109% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$295 vs −$81 · ×3.64 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage

Net worth$1,274

Realized+$1,533

Unrealized+$75

Win rate (resolved)42%

Wins / losses8 / 11

Est. fees paid−$6

Open positions13

Markets (closed)19 / 32

History coverage66d

Avg bet$108

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown27%

Kalshi-fit16%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 13 History 19 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	58¢	57¢	$300	$297	−$3 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	18¢	$199	$223	+$24 (+12%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	16¢	26¢	$100	$159	+$59 (+59%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?	Yes	26¢	28¢	$100	$110	+$10 (+10%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	42¢	42¢	$100	$99	−$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia?	Yes	5¢	6¢	$50	$55	+$5 (+10%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	17¢	16¢	$50	$49	−$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	Yes	13¢	12¢	$50	$48	−$2 (-4%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia?	Yes	11¢	10¢	$50	$48	−$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$50	$48	−$2 (-5%)
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$50	$48	−$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia?	Yes	7¢	6¢	$50	$46	−$4 (-7%)
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$50	$46	−$4 (-8%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan?	Jun 17	$103	+$1,147	+1110%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria?	Jun 17	$52	−$52	-100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$307	+$123	+40%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$304	+$143	+47%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 17	$52	−$52	-100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?	Jun 17	$52	−$52	-100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria?	Jun 17	$52	−$52	-100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 16	$103	+$311	+303%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 16	$204	−$204	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$204	+$188	+92%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$103	−$103	-100%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	Jun 14	$103	−$103	-100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Jun 14	$51	+$104	+203%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$102	−$102	-100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 RBC Heritage?	Jun 13	$20	−$20	-100%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 PGA Championship?	Jun 13	$102	−$102	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	Jun 13	$50	−$50	-100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$153	+$164	+107%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?	Apr 13	$99	+$177	+178%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia?	BUY Yes	7¢	$52	1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia?	BUY Yes	11¢	$52	1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$52	1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	42¢	$102	1h
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia?	BUY Yes	5¢	$52	1h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia?	BUY Yes	6¢	$52	1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	58¢	$305	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	10¢	$52	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	13¢	$52	1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	17¢	$51	1h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan?	BUY Yes	8¢	$103	11h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria?	BUY Yes	12¢	$52	14h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	11¢	$52	14h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	7¢	$52	14h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria?	BUY Yes	5¢	$52	14h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	70¢	$177	33h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$414	33h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	71¢	$130	35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$304	35h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$103	2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	51¢	$204	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$204	3d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$103	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	58¢	$102	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$317	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$153	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$103	5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$103	5d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	BUY Yes	32¢	$51	18d
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series?	BUY Yes	26¢	$103	26d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,274.29 · official $1,274.33 (match) · 97 history records