Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T13:07:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FF 0xff8f…aaf8 sports 11 markets active 8d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$5 (+12%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$5
other 33% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +47.4% +33.4% 70% 60% +29.6%
≤90d 10 +47.4% +33.4% 70% 60% +29.6%
all 10 +47.4% +33.4% 70% 60% +29.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.4% 60% +29.6%
10% +20.6% 60% +17.2%
15% +8.9% 60% +5.9%
20% -1.7% 60% -4.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.48 per $1 lost it wins $3.48
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 11
History coverage2d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 +$7 +227%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $5 +$5 +94%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -82%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +140%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 +$2 +59%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 −$3 -62%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $1 +$1 +54%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 30¢ $3 7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 3¢ $1 7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 17¢ $3 7d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 35¢ $4 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 41¢ $3 8d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 8d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $1 8d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $4 8d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 8d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $1 8d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 SELL Over 8¢ $1 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 8d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 8d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 9d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 37¢ $2 9d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 33¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records