Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FF 0xff91…f8c3 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$177 (-3%) realized −$330 · open +$153
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Kalshi-fit6%portable
Net worth$645now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% −$186
crypto 3% +$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -9.4% -18.0% 62% 56% -11.9%
≤30d 17 -14.7% -22.8% 59% 53% -13.5%
≤90d 17 -14.7% -22.8% 59% 53% -13.5%
all 17 -14.7% -22.8% 59% 53% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.8% 53% -13.5%
10% -30.2% 47% -21.8%
15% -36.9% 35% -29.3%
20% -43.1% 18% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$239 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$645
Realized−$330
Unrealized+$153
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage7d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit6%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 73¢ 96¢ $492 $645 +$153 (+31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $245 −$239 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $255 −$250 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $385 −$380 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $355 +$260 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $503 +$122 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $494 +$504 +102%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $445 −$443 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $384 +$61 +16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $370 +$35 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $267 +$102 +38%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $252 −$250 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $151 +$66 +44%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $307 +$147 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $180 +$127 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $143 +$37 +26%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $93 −$90 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $345 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $50 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 73¢ $101 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 20¢ $194 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 40¢ $255 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 60¢ $385 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $355 43h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $503 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 79¢ $998 47h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $290 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 38¢ $102 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $445 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $384 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $370 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $370 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $25 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $242 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 5d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $202 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $151 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $307 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $180 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 79¢ $143 6d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 5¢ $93 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $644.85 · official $644.85 (match) · 36 history records