Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xff91…863d crypto 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$402 (+8%) realized +$381 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate67%20W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$436now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$405
other 7% +$22
sports 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +5.3% -4.7% 67% 50% -16.8%
≤30d 30 +5.3% -4.7% 67% 50% -16.8%
≤90d 30 +5.3% -4.7% 67% 50% -16.8%
all 30 +5.3% -4.7% 67% 50% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.7% 50% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -13.8% 40% -24.8%
15% -22.2% 27% -32.1%
20% -29.8% 13% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$180 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$436
Realized+$381
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses20 / 10
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)30 / 36
History coverage8d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Up 30¢ 30¢ $384 $397 +$13 (+3%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 10¢ 26¢ $5 $13 +$8 (+155%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 21 $615 −$609 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $146 +$42 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $254 −$254 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 21 $854 +$138 +16%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 21 $361 +$94 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $231 +$466 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 21 $45 +$9 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $111 −$2 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $242 +$7 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 20 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 20 $73 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 20 $649 −$649 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 20 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 20 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $253 +$132 +52%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $109 +$423 +389%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 20 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 20 $106 +$8 +7%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $105 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $167 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $21 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $108 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $884 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $99 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $105 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $104 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $103 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $38 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $77 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $104 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $104 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 13m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $435.58 · official $681.83 · 178 history records