Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:01:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xff91…7441 other 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$30 (+13%) realized +$60 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$9
crypto 7% +$11
sports 3% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +21.1% +9.6% 86% 71% +12.5%
≤30d 7 +21.1% +9.6% 86% 71% +12.5%
≤90d 7 +21.1% +9.6% 86% 71% +12.5%
all 7 +21.1% +9.6% 86% 71% +12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.6% 71% +12.5%
10% -0.9% 57% +1.7%
15% -10.5% 57% -8.1%
20% -19.2% 43% -17.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×8.2 per $1 lost it wins $8.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized+$60
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 83¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 +$4 +59%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $57 $0 +0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $38 +$18 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $16 +$11 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$2 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$6 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 0m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 4m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $20 6m
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 12m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 12m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 83¢ $30 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 95¢ $57 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $57 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 7h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 7h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $12 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 24h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $17 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $16 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $16 29h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $15 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.51 · official $19.51 (match) · 20 history records