Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:52:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
FF 0xff92…5973 other 69 markets active 0h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$604 (+14%) realized +$645 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%27W / 35L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$489now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$146
7 days+$605
14 days+$579
30 days+$561
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$105
sports 24% +$435
crypto 5% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+3.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +21.1% +9.5% 43% 43% +16.8%
≤30d 62 +14.5% +3.6% 44% 42% +3.7%
≤90d 62 +14.5% +3.6% 44% 42% +3.7%
all 62 +14.5% +3.6% 44% 42% +3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.6% 42% +3.7%
10% -6.3% 40% -6.2%
15% -15.4% 37% -15.3%
20% -23.7% 32% -23.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$32 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$489
Realized+$645
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses27 / 35
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions7
Markets (closed)62 / 69
History coverage17d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 41¢ 42¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 53¢ 64¢ $50 $61 +$11 (+22%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 40¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $102 +$126 +124%
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 22 $20 −$4 -18%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $202 +$103 +51%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 +$35 +344%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$60 +388%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $15 +$121 +786%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $303 +$149 +49%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$25 -80%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$39 +76%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$43 +105%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$54 +262%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $114 +$74 +65%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$14 -45%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$3 -10%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $122 +$86 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $201 −$91 -45%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$11 +23%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $152 +$76 +50%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $72 −$22 -31%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $72 +$116 +162%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$56 -28%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$133 +324%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $81 −$32 -40%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $261 −$260 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $41 +$97 +238%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$78 -77%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $250 +$14 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 9m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $151 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $31 1h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 40¢ $51 3h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 16h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 16h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $102 16h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 16h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $17 23h
Spread: France (-4.5) BUY France 22¢ $20 24h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $41 26h
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 38h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 39h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 39h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 45h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 45h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $6 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $489.03 · official $483.24 · 135 history records