Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xff92…d07c
politics · 63 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$865 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$298 · open +$218
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$4,210
Realized+$298
Unrealized+$218
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses23 / 16
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions37
Markets (closed)39 / 63
History coverage122d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 37 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$91
7 days−$91
14 days−$25
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tom Begich win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No 64¢ 70¢ $712 $779 +$67 (+9%)
Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No 73¢ 76¢ $536 $554 +$19 (+3%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? Yes 56¢ 68¢ $236 $290 +$54 (+23%)
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026? No 79¢ 86¢ $260 $280 +$21 (+8%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 13¢ 23¢ $160 $278 +$118 (+74%)
Will the Democrats win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026? Yes 88¢ 92¢ $248 $260 +$12 (+5%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $218 $224 +$6 (+3%)
Will the Democrats win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? Yes 82¢ 90¢ $200 $221 +$21 (+11%)
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No 95¢ 99¢ $174 $182 +$9 (+5%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? Yes 39¢ 46¢ $154 $181 +$27 (+18%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 74¢ 89¢ $149 $179 +$30 (+20%)
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No 40¢ 46¢ $140 $160 +$20 (+15%)
Will the Democrats win the Michigan governor race in 2026? Yes 80¢ 83¢ $108 $113 +$5 (+4%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $95 $101 +$7 (+7%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 18¢ 26¢ $66 $95 +$29 (+44%)
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? Yes 23¢ 18¢ $73 $56 −$17 (-23%)
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 93¢ 94¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Republicans win the Pennsylvania governor race in 2026? No 89¢ 94¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+5%)
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes $20 $27 +$6 (+30%)
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? No 95¢ 100¢ $24 $25 +$1 (+5%)
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026? No 21¢ 20¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-5%)
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? Yes 22¢ 28¢ $16 $20 +$4 (+27%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 94¢ 100¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+7%)
Will John James win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary election? Yes 50¢ 57¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+14%)
Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes $8 $13 +$5 (+61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 12 $0 +$3 +849%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Bears win the NFC Championship? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Will Gwyneth Paltrow be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 9 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ryan Coogler be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy A Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Amanda Seyfried be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Jun 12 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Guillermo del Toro be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Aca Jun 12 $1 +$9 +881%
Will Josh Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Aw Jun 12 $99 −$90 -91%
Will GNX (Kendrick Lamar) win Album of the Year at the 68th Annual GRA Jun 12 $3 +$14 +482%
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th A Jun 12 $0 −$8 -3262%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 12 $0 $0 -59%
Will Apocalypse in the Tropics be nominated for Best Documentary Featu Jun 12 $19 −$9 -46%
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Jun 01 $239 +$68 +28%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $14 +$1 +6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 31 $31 −$3 -9%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 25 $382 +$33 +9%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 24 $39 +$8 +20%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 20 $14 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 20 $67 +$1 +1%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 19 $105 +$7 +7%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 14 $91 +$8 +8%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 12 $196 −$60 -31%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 12 $6 $0 +6%
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? May 11 $156 +$50 +32%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 11 $55 −$10 -18%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 11 $160 +$6 +4%
Will Laura Loomer win the GA-14 special election? May 11 $10 $0 +5%
Will Holly McCormack win the GA-14 special election? May 11 $12 +$1 +5%
Will Star Black win the GA-14 special election? May 11 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 11 $113 $0 +0%
Will Jennifer Strahan win the GA-14 special election? May 11 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Trey Kelley win the GA-14 special election? May 11 $198 +$78 +40%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 11 $1,236 +$247 +20%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Mar 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $131 +$6 +4%
Will Aric Nesbitt win the 2026 Michigan Governor Republican primary el Mar 05 $26 +$2 +8%
Will Kon Knueppel win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award? Mar 05 $55 −$15 -28%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 05 $45 +$1 +3%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 05 $11 −$2 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 68% +$426
sports 32% +$181
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Treg Taylor win the 2026 Alaska governor election? SELL Yes $2 8m
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? SELL No 47¢ $4 3h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 29¢ $5 10h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 39¢ $1 11h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 37¢ $1 11h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 40¢ $7 12h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $9 14h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $9 14h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 94¢ $9 14h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 94¢ $9 14h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $4 19h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 19h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 19h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 19h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 19h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 19h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 19h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $9 40h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 40h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 40h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 40h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 40h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 40h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 40h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 40h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 40h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 40h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 40h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 40h
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+78.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +137.3% +114.7% 27% 27% -66.3%
≤30d 20 +207.9% +178.6% 50% 50% -1.4%
≤90d 33 +121.9% +100.7% 61% 39% +6.6%
all 39 +97.6% +78.7% 59% 33% +3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +78.7% 33% +3.3%
10% ← realistic here +61.6% 28% -6.6%
15% +46.0% 21% -15.6%
20% +31.7% 18% -23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,209.63 · official $4,211.97 (match) · 3500 history records