Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:51:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff95…5029 weather 337 markets active 1h ago coverage 574d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-0%) realized −$32 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate90%303W / 33L
Whale WR99%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$934per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$2,342now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$668
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$120
crypto 0% −$55
world 0% +$100
sports 0% $0
other 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 22 -8.3% -17.0% 91% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 258 -2.4% -11.7% 96% 0% -9.6%
all 336 -4.4% -13.5% 90% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 4% -9.5%
10% -21.8% 4% -18.2%
15% -29.4% 4% -26.1%
20% -36.3% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 99% (≥$1,372) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$29 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

574d coverage
Net worth$2,342
Realized−$32
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses303 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)99%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)336 / 337
History coverage574d
Avg bet$934
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 336 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or below on June 22? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,344 $2,342 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? Jun 22 $2,342 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? Jun 21 $649 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 26? May 27 $498 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on May 26? May 27 $956 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 26? May 27 $983 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 27? May 27 $284 −$283 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? May 27 $517 −$516 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on May 26? May 27 $700 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 26? May 26 $1,265 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 26? May 26 $1,870 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 25? May 26 $3,132 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 25? May 25 $1,060 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 25? May 25 $1,485 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on May 24? May 25 $495 +$20 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C on May 24? May 25 $538 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 24? May 25 $755 +$14 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 24? May 25 $1,387 +$28 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 30°C or higher on May 2 May 24 $156 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on May 23? May 24 $493 +$26 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on May 23? May 24 $954 +$13 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on May 23? May 24 $1,526 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 23? May 23 $3,011 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C or higher on May 2 May 22 $168 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on May 21? May 22 $178 +$10 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on May 21? May 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on May 21? May 22 $336 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on May 21? May 22 $998 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on May 17? May 21 $1,232 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on May 17? May 21 $1,765 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C or higher on May 16? May 17 $834 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on May 16? May 17 $1,243 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 16? May 16 $566 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 16? May 16 $990 +$14 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 16? May 16 $1,402 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 16? May 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 15? May 16 $393 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 15? May 16 $508 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 15? May 16 $535 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 15? May 16 $1,516 +$19 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on May 15? May 15 $2,271 +$20 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on May 15? May 15 $659 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 14? May 15 $142 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on May 14? May 15 $549 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on May 14? May 15 $2,785 +$28 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on May 14? May 14 $280 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 14? May 14 $560 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on May 14? May 14 $2,060 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 13? May 14 $1,105 +$12 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on May 13? May 14 $2,289 +$16 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on May 13? May 13 $810 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C or below on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $2,344 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $2,342 17h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $10 38h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $6 39h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $32 41h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $23 41h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $101 41h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $129 41h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $100 41h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $5 41h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $2 41h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $241 41h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 27? SELL No 0¢ $1 26d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 26d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 27? BUY No 91¢ $7 26d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? BUY Yes 92¢ $19 26d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 26d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 26d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 27? BUY No 91¢ $44 26d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on May 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 26d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? BUY Yes 95¢ $92 26d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? BUY Yes 94¢ $15 26d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? BUY Yes 95¢ $57 26d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? BUY Yes 94¢ $7 26d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? BUY Yes 94¢ $65 26d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? BUY Yes 95¢ $11 26d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 27? BUY No 96¢ $85 26d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 26d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 27? BUY Yes 95¢ $41 26d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 27? BUY No 95¢ $64 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,342.48 · official $2,342.48 (match) · 2176 history records