Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:09:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FF 0xff97…e7ca sports 370 markets active 0h ago coverage 109d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$314 (+1%) realized +$353 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate75%267W / 90L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day16.2pace
Fees−$271est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$582now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days−$1,802
14 days−$1,799
30 days−$1,462
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$730
other 15% +$111
crypto 14% +$21
politics 4% −$88
weather 1% −$517
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 -1.6% -11.0% 88% 17% -30.0%
≤30d 207 -0.3% -9.8% 86% 26% -19.3%
≤90d 335 +15.6% +4.6% 76% 35% -8.6%
all 357 +12.9% +2.2% 75% 36% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 36% -9.1%
10% -7.6% 22% -17.8%
15% -16.5% 14% -25.7%
20% -24.7% 11% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +27% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$59 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

109d coverage
Net worth$582
Realized+$353
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses267 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$271
Open positions13
Markets (closed)357 / 370
History coverage109d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day16.2
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next? Yes 78¢ 64¢ $195 $160 −$35 (-18%)
UFC Fight Night: Ikram Aliskerov vs. Brunno Ferreira (Middleweight, Main Card) Ikram Aliskerov 72¢ 74¢ $94 $96 +$2 (+2%)
UFC Fight Night: Michel Pereira vs. Shara Magomedov (Middleweight, Main Card) Shara Magomedov 77¢ 77¢ $92 $92 −$0 (-0%)
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Card) Nazim Sadykhov 68¢ 66¢ $85 $82 −$3 (-4%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 70¢ 66¢ $70 $66 −$4 (-6%)
Will Merab Dvalishvili fight Petr Yan next? Yes 77¢ 72¢ $34 $32 −$2 (-5%)
Will Petr Yan fight Sean O’Malley next? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $28 $31 +$3 (+11%)
UFC Fight Night: Nursulton Ruziboev vs. Andrey Pulyaev (Middleweight, Prelims) Nursulton Ruziboev 66¢ 66¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Prelims) Daniil Donchenko 81¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Card) Manuel Torres 51¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Tahir Abdullayev vs. Jefferson Nascimento (Welterweight, Prelims) Tahir Abdullayev 50¢ 50¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Jean Matsumoto vs. Bekzat Almakhan (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jean Matsumoto 61¢ 60¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Farman Hasanov 62¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Fight Night: Eric Nolan vs. Farman Hasanov (Welterweight, Prelims) Eric Nolan 39¢ 38¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $99 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $39 +$20 +51%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $99 +$7 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $99 −$99 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $47 +$6 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $96 +$10 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 25 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 25 $87 +$20 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $70 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 25 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $96 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $50 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 24 $99 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $24 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 24 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 24 $13 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 24 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 24 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $15 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $16 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $17 4m
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $49 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $28 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $8 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $39 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $7 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $43 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $4 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $39 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $49 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $41 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $49 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $50 4h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 51¢ $2 4h
UFC Fight Night: Rafael Fiziev vs. Manuel Torres (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Manuel Torres 51¢ $2 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $7 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $24 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $41 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $582.11 · official $581.88 (match) · 2069 history records