Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:37:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

FF 0xff9d…3a97 other 26 markets active 3h ago coverage 44d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$123 (+9%) realized +$123 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +25% what you keep after slip

Net edge+25%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate45%9W / 11L

Drawdown96%max

Avg bet$52per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Fees−$9est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$22

7 days+$97

14 days+$193

30 days+$193

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)+24.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	17	+20.2%	+8.8%	41%	41%	+2.0%
≤30d	18	+23.0%	+11.3%	44%	44%	+9.9%
≤90d	20	+37.8%	+24.7%	45%	45%	+3.7%
all	20	+37.8%	+24.7%	45%	45%	+3.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+24.7%	45%	+3.7%
10%	+12.8%	45%	-6.2%
15%	+1.9%	45%	-15.3%
20%	-8.1%	45%	-23.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +38% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +28% → late +48% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$67 vs −$41 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.35 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$123

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses9 / 11

Est. fees paid−$9

Open positions0

Markets (closed)20 / 26

History coverage44d

Avg bet$52

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown96%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 20 Trades

no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$15	+$22	+147%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$25	+$25	+97%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	Jun 17	$15	+$18	+117%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$29	−$28	-98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists	Jun 17	$15	−$15	-98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 15	$20	+$51	+249%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Jun 15	$41	−$4	-9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$61	−$3	-5%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Jun 15	$41	−$3	-8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$76	+$70	+92%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$41	−$3	-7%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$41	−$40	-98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$61	−$60	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$41	+$46	+114%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$102	+$161	+158%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$106	−$104	-98%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw?	Jun 12	$37	−$36	-98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Jun 11	$136	+$96	+70%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw?	May 07	$26	+$114	+442%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	May 06	$153	−$150	-98%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?	BUY	30¢	$15	2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18	BUY	35¢	$25	2h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	40¢	$15	16h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	SELL Yes	99¢	$33	21h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals	BUY Yes	45¢	$15	22h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	50¢	$25	22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$29	22h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	22¢	$15	24h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists	BUY Yes	34¢	$15	24h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	44¢	$153	37h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AN	BUY	24¢	$20	3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	SELL Yes	21¢	$37	3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY	35¢	$51	3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	SELL Yes	53¢	$58	3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	SELL Yes	23¢	$37	3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	54¢	$61	3d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	22¢	$41	3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$41	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$146	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	53¢	$15	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$30	3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	29¢	$38	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$30	4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$20	4d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$20	4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	26¢	$41	4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$61	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$87	5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	100¢	$71	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	46¢	$41	5d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $40.00 · 45 history records