Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:01:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FF 0xff9f…7393 other 5 markets active 3h ago coverage 57d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-2%) realized −$11 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$1,031now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$9
other 11% −$31
crypto 7% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-31.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -29.8% -36.5% 0% 0% -36.5%
≤30d 4 -23.9% -31.1% 50% 50% -19.9%
≤90d 4 -23.9% -31.1% 50% 50% -19.9%
all 4 -23.9% -31.1% 50% 50% -19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.1% 50% -19.9%
10% -37.7% 0% -27.6%
15% -43.7% 0% -34.6%
20% -49.2% 0% -41.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$22 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$1,031
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage57d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $1,040 $1,031 −$9 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $116 −$35 -30%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? Jun 08 $87 +$13 +15%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$9 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 08 $21 +$4 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $1,053 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $81 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $116 2d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 8? BUY No 9¢ $10 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 8? BUY No 86¢ $87 10d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $21 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,031.03 · official $1,031.03 (match) · 10 history records