Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:59:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xff9f…2dc8 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 352d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$1
other 31% $0
politics 11% $0
culture 5% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 4% −$5
tech 2% $0
sports 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -5.7% -14.7% 60% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 7 -4.0% -13.1% 57% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 13 -1.7% -11.1% 38% 8% -9.7%
all 52 -0.9% -10.3% 29% 4% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 4% -10.3%
10% -18.9% 2% -18.9%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

352d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage352d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 87¢ 86¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $2 $0 +4%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $9 −$3 -35%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $41 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $45 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $15 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $44 −$3 -7%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $49 −$1 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $3 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $46 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 23 $28 +$5 +19%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 06 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Aug 06 $5 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $6 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Aug 05 $17 $0 -0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Aug 05 $4 $0 +2%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 31 $10 $0 +0%
Harvard international students ban ended before August? Jul 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 30 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $9 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 29 $8 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 29 $7 $0 +2%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 24 $5 $0 -2%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 18–25? Jul 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jul 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Jul 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in July? Jul 20 $12 −$5 -39%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 5k-10k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 11 $1 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jul 11 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in July? Jul 11 $2 $0 +28%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 11 $11 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 10 $12 $0 -3%
Will Manfred Reyes Villa win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 10 $5 $0 -8%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Jul 10 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 09 $13 $0 +1%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bilibili Gaming win the 2025 Mid-Season Invitational? Jul 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 09 $12 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 08 $12 $0 -1%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 08 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $30 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $10 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 19h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 21h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 23h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 23h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $9 27h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $30 34h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $12 34h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $0 36h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $41 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $35 36h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $18 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $24 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $41 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $17 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL No 97¢ $28 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY No 97¢ $45 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $27 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $14 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $15 30d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $26 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.92 · official $39.38 (match) · 166 history records