Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:28:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FF 0xffa1…9be0 other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 146d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$206 (+63%) realized +$207 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%2W / 5L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$240
politics 23% −$20
world 13% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 7 +11.0% +0.4% 29% 29% +65.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.4% 29% +65.9%
10% -9.2% 29% +50.0%
15% -18.0% 29% +35.5%
20% -26.0% 29% +22.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +83% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$22 · ×6.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

146d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized+$207
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses2 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 9
History coverage146d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-3%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $40 −$40 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 03 $74 −$20 -27%
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 26 $50 +$126 +252%
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 25 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minute Jan 25 $50 +$162 +325%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $23 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 1h
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 4¢ $40 110d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY No 3¢ $2 110d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY No 3¢ $2 110d
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 136d
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? SELL No 84¢ $84 136d
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? BUY No 54¢ $54 137d
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 143d
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 143d
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? SELL Yes 88¢ $176 144d
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 144d
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 144d
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 144d
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 144d
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 144d
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 144d
Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 144d
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 145d
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 145d
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 145d
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 145d
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 20¢ $4 145d
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 20¢ $7 145d
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 145d
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 145d
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 145d
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 145d
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 145d
Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 145d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.10 · official $58.10 (match) · 34 history records