Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:01:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
FF 0xffa3…08f0 sports 143 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$199 (+8%) realized +$128 · open +$71
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%38W / 71L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$55est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$152
14 days+$284
30 days+$266
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$397
other 10% −$59
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +11.0% +0.5% 40% 40% +17.4%
≤30d 109 +27.3% +15.2% 35% 34% +4.0%
≤90d 109 +27.3% +15.2% 35% 34% +4.0%
all 109 +27.3% +15.2% 35% 34% +4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.2% 34% +4.0%
10% +4.2% 33% -5.9%
15% -5.9% 31% -15.0%
20% -15.1% 30% -23.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +15% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late +20% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$10 · ×2.53 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized+$128
Unrealized+$71
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses38 / 71
Est. fees paid−$55
Open positions5
Markets (closed)109 / 143
History coverage20d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 109 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo $31 $100 +$69 (+221%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 48¢ 50¢ $76 $78 +$2 (+3%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 44¢ 44¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Deniz Undav be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-35%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 59 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $20 +$25 +123%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 Jun 27 $44 −$43 -99%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 26 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $39 +$23 +59%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a dr Jun 26 $8 +$28 +340%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Türkiye vs. United Jun 25 $10 −$3 -26%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Germany? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -97%
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 164.5 Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $30 +$20 +66%
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 170.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $29 +$35 +122%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $20 −$16 -77%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 24 $10 +$28 +272%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 +$14 +140%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $15 +$22 +145%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $15 −$1 -3%
Dallas Wings vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 170.5 Jun 23 $41 +$37 +91%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: France (-5.5) Jun 23 $1 $0 +29%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $39 +$32 +82%
Michael Olise: 1+ assists Jun 22 $5 +$6 +124%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $3 +$18 +596%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 22 $5 +$7 +143%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $15 −$15 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $10 +$25 +250%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $5 +$10 +193%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $15 +$16 +106%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND Will Morocco win on 20 Jun 20 $29 +$90 +313%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Jun 20 $39 +$97 +250%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $31 +$18 +57%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $8 −$6 -72%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $14 +$14 +97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $32 +$9 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $40 1h
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score AND Will Croatia vs. Ghana end BUY 14¢ $5 1h
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $45 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $77 6h
Liaoning Tieren FC vs. Shandong Taishan FC: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 6h
Atlanta Dream vs. Golden State Valkyries: O/U 163.5 BUY Over 51¢ $44 13h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $2 23h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 10.5 Total Corners AND Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 3 BUY 11¢ $10 25h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026 BUY 21¢ $10 25h
Spread: France (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY 31¢ $18 25h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 France? BUY Yes $1 25h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 2 France? BUY Yes $1 25h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total BUY 30¢ $20 25h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? BUY Yes $1 25h
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes $0 25h
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $63 26h
Qingdao Hainiu FC vs. Yunnan Yukun FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $39 34h
Will Paraguay be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World C SELL Yes $3 34h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a dr SELL 99¢ $36 34h
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score AND Will United States BUY 31¢ $9 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Türkiye vs. United SELL $8 2d
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 41¢ $10 2d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score AND Will United States BUY 20¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes $2 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 3 Germany? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: Ecuador 3 - 2 Germany? BUY Yes $1 2d
Exact Score: Japan 3 - 3 Sweden? BUY Yes $2 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a dr BUY 22¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.89 · official $223.85 · 215 history records