Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:39:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
FF 0xffa3…1117 crypto 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$68 · open +$48
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%55W / 2L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$179per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$566now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$28
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 23 +0.1% -9.4% 96% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 57 +0.1% -9.5% 96% 0% -9.7%
all 57 +0.1% -9.5% 96% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$27 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$566
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$48
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses55 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Open positions4
Markets (closed)57 / 61
History coverage89d
Avg bet$179
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? No 88¢ 96¢ $504 $553 +$48 (+10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? No 99¢ 100¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? No 99¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 09 $6 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? May 31 $5 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 29? May 31 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 27? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 26? May 27 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 24? May 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 18? May 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 15? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 14? May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 11? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 8? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30? May 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 27? Apr 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 19? Apr 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 15? Apr 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 13? Apr 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 12? Apr 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 11? Apr 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 10? Apr 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9? Apr 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 6? Apr 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 4? Apr 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 3? Apr 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 1? Apr 01 $976 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 31? Mar 31 $975 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 30? Mar 30 $972 +$3 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $149 50m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $66 50m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 19¢ $59 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 15¢ $27 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 17¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 18¢ $88 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 17¢ $53 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 16¢ $50 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 87¢ $176 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 82¢ $83 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 81¢ $33 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $8 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $8 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $8 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $7 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $5 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $6 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $5 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $5 16d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $5 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $565.73 · official $565.73 (match) · 199 history records