Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:03:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FF 0xffab…78ba politics 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 606d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge
Total PnL −$3,316 (-14%) realized −$3,274 · open −$42
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%37W / 32L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$304per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$873
other 39% −$1,343
crypto 9% −$1,117
sports 4% −$33
tech 2% +$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 69 +29.2% +16.9% 54% 46% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.9% 46% -22.4%
10% +5.7% 33% -29.9%
15% -4.5% 26% -36.6%
20% -13.8% 22% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +60% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$201 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$3,274
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses37 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions7
Markets (closed)69 / 76
History coverage606d
Avg bet$304
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 29¢ 16¢ $87 $47 −$40 (-46%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 73¢ $30 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-2%)
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $8 −$1 (-11%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Yes 43¢ 44¢ $6 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Dec 20 $225 +$35 +16%
Will Anderson Silva win his boxing match against Tyron Woodley? Dec 20 $68 +$32 +47%
Will the fight be ruled a No Contest or end in any other result? Dec 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor Dec 19 $155 −$155 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Tsarukyan (Lightweight, Main Card) Nov 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Boxing - Jake Paul vs. Gervonta Davis Nov 07 $88 +$11 +13%
Will Jake Paul win by Points or Decision? Sep 01 $19 −$19 -100%
UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-France Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files? Jun 28 $55 −$54 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. Jun 22 $50 +$48 +96%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Apr 29 $806 −$615 -76%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? Mar 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI? Mar 02 $538 +$62 +12%
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Feb 14 $383 −$383 -100%
RFK Jr. confirmed as Health & Human Services Secretary? Feb 14 $988 −$198 -20%
Pam Bondi confirmed as Attorney General? Feb 05 $490 +$37 +8%
Pete Hegseth confirmed as Secretary of Defense? Jan 25 $308 +$109 +35%
Will Trump issue 40 or more executive orders on Day 1? Jan 22 $490 −$394 -80%
Will Trump issue 20-24 executive orders on Day 1? Jan 21 $103 −$73 -71%
Will Trump say "drill baby drill" during his inauguration speech? Jan 20 $24 +$126 +525%
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025? Jan 20 $212 −$157 -74%
Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy? Jan 17 $98 +$52 +53%
Will Biden pardon Trump? Jan 04 $49 −$26 -53%
Will Usyk vs. Fury have no official winner? Dec 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Fury beat Usyk? Dec 22 $312 −$218 -70%
Record turnout in 2024 Presidential election? Dec 17 $1,922 −$124 -6%
Will ≥2% of votes go to 3rd Party candidates? Dec 17 $4,854 −$1,276 -26%
Stirling vs. Tokkos Dec 15 $34 +$6 +18%
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in November? Dec 01 $1,219 −$503 -41%
Will there be 150,000,000-155,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. President Nov 29 $1,639 −$738 -45%
Will another driver win the 2024 Las Vegas Grand Prix? Nov 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be 155,000,000-160,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. President Nov 23 $1,927 −$982 -51%
Cong vs. Fernandes Nov 23 $30 +$220 +733%
Oezdemir vs. Ulberg Nov 23 $69 +$31 +45%
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden? Nov 22 $284 +$8 +3%
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet? Nov 22 $854 −$95 -11%
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX's Super Heavy? Nov 20 $48 +$152 +317%
Oliveira vs. Chandler Nov 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Nickal vs. Craig Nov 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Jones vs. Miocic Nov 17 $163 +$37 +23%
Will Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson have no official winner? Nov 16 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $640 +$409 +64%
Will Trump say "Elon" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 15 $134 +$106 +79%
Will Trump say "Kamala" in his speech after the election is called? Nov 15 $145 −$52 -36%
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul? Nov 15 $28 +$4 +14%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Nov 11 $100 +$153 +153%
Trump wins every swing state? Nov 10 $952 +$821 +86%
Will a Republican win Nevada Presidential Election? Nov 09 $194 +$117 +60%
Will a Republican win Pennsylvania Presidential Election? Nov 06 $50 +$33 +66%
Kamala publicly concedes by noon Wednesday? Nov 06 $19 +$130 +669%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $9 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $7 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $7 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $30 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $9 1h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 1h
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? BUY Yes 87¢ $139 178d
Will the fight be ruled a No Contest or end in any other result? BUY Yes $14 178d
Will Anderson Silva win his boxing match against Tyron Woodley? BUY Yes 68¢ $52 179d
Will Anderson Silva win his boxing match against Tyron Woodley? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 179d
Will Anderson Silva win his boxing match against Tyron Woodley? BUY Yes 68¢ $1 179d
Will Anderson Silva win his boxing match against Tyron Woodley? BUY Yes 68¢ $11 179d
Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? BUY Yes 86¢ $86 179d
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoor BUY Tate 84¢ $155 179d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 29¢ $87 206d
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Tsarukyan (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Hooker 15¢ $25 206d
Boxing - Jake Paul vs. Gervonta Davis BUY Paul 42¢ $16 273d
Boxing - Jake Paul vs. Gervonta Davis BUY Paul 45¢ $66 273d
Boxing - Jake Paul vs. Gervonta Davis BUY Paul 45¢ $2 277d
Boxing - Jake Paul vs. Gervonta Davis BUY Paul 42¢ $5 280d
Will Jake Paul win by Points or Decision? BUY Yes 19¢ $9 288d
Will Jake Paul win by Points or Decision? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 288d
Will Jake Paul win by Points or Decision? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 288d
UFC 317: Pantoja vs. Kara-France BUY Kara-France 32¢ $40 353d
Will Bill Gates be named in Epstein files? SELL Yes $1 353d
UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. BUY Rountree Jr. 51¢ $50 360d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? SELL Yes $30 412d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? SELL Yes $33 414d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? BUY Yes $0 451d
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2025 Chinese Grand Prix Sprint? BUY Yes $0 451d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.78 · official $117.78 (match) · 763 history records