Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:15:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xffae…adae sports 751 markets active 2h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$134 (+0%) realized +$64 · open +$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate46%342W / 409L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$573est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$199now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days−$359
14 days+$37
30 days−$776
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -27.5% -34.4% 32% 32% -31.1%
≤30d 116 -2.8% -12.1% 42% 42% -18.4%
≤90d 461 +2.6% -7.1% 46% 46% -10.4%
all 751 +1.0% -8.6% 46% 45% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 45% -10.0%
10% -17.3% 45% -18.6%
15% -25.3% 45% -26.5%
20% -32.6% 44% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$67 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$199
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$70
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses342 / 409
Est. fees paid−$573
Open positions2
Markets (closed)751 / 751
History coverage212d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 751 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Houston Astros 47¢ 86¢ $59 $109 +$50 (+84%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 43¢ 56¢ $70 $90 +$20 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 23 $72 −$72 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 23 $72 −$72 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 23 $61 +$69 +114%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 22 $61 −$60 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 22 $61 −$60 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $61 +$73 +119%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 21 $62 −$60 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 21 $61 −$60 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $59 +$62 +105%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $59 +$112 +188%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros Jun 21 $59 +$79 +134%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $59 +$70 +119%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $59 −$58 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 20 $59 −$58 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Jun 19 $61 −$59 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 19 $61 −$59 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $89 +$106 +119%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $60 +$68 +114%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $58 −$57 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $60 −$59 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 16 $63 −$62 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $63 −$62 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $63 −$62 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $63 −$62 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 16 $66 +$96 +146%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 15 $66 −$65 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $67 −$66 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $66 −$65 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $66 −$65 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $63 +$109 +172%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $63 +$114 +180%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $62 +$71 +114%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $62 +$90 +146%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $62 −$61 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $63 +$81 +129%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 12 $63 −$62 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 12 $63 −$62 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $63 −$62 -98%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $61 −$60 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $61 +$89 +146%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $61 +$93 +152%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $61 +$72 +119%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $61 +$106 +172%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $92 −$90 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 10 $61 +$82 +134%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $61 +$67 +109%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 09 $61 −$60 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 09 $61 −$60 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 47¢ $60 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 42¢ $61 22h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 43¢ $61 22h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins BUY Texas Rangers 46¢ $61 23h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 47¢ $15 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 45¢ $61 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 41¢ $62 2d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 46¢ $61 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 48¢ $59 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $59 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $59 2d
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins BUY San Francisco Giants 43¢ $59 3d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Toronto Blue Jays 45¢ $59 3d
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Chicago White Sox 48¢ $59 3d
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY San Diego Padres 41¢ $61 3d
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 41¢ $61 3d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $89 6d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ $58 6d
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 40¢ $60 6d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 46¢ $60 6d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Cleveland Guardians 42¢ $63 6d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $63 6d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 38¢ $63 6d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $63 6d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 41¢ $66 7d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 46¢ $1 7d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 39¢ $66 8d
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Minnesota Twins 40¢ $66 8d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 44¢ $66 8d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 45¢ $66 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.10 · official $199.10 (match) · 1441 history records