Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:48:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xffaf…b675
sports · 499 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$3,228 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9,860 · open +$393
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16,397
Realized+$9,860
Unrealized+$393
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses331 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$119
Open positions146
Markets (closed)355 / 499
History coverage105d
Avg bet$327
Trades / day28.8
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit85%
Chart Positions 146 History 355 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days+$57
14 days+$110
30 days+$171
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Andrei Vasilevskiy win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? No 100¢ 100¢ $910 $913 +$3 (+0%)
Will Aaron Judge lead the MLB in RBIs for the 2026 regular season? No 93¢ 99¢ $765 $813 +$48 (+6%)
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 93¢ 93¢ $491 $491 +$0 (+0%)
Will Steve Carell attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 75¢ 98¢ $368 $485 +$117 (+32%)
Will Suni Lee attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 95¢ 94¢ $484 $479 −$5 (-1%)
Will New York Mets win the 2026 NL East title? No 94¢ 99¢ $436 $459 +$23 (+5%)
Will Travis Scott attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 97¢ 96¢ $436 $432 −$5 (-1%)
Will Kevin James attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 95¢ 98¢ $403 $415 +$12 (+3%)
Will Dan Bilzerian be the Republican nominee for FL-06? No 81¢ 97¢ $346 $412 +$66 (+19%)
Will Gavin McKenna be drafted 1st overall in the 2026 NHL Draft? Yes 83¢ 93¢ $320 $359 +$39 (+12%)
Will Selena Gomez attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 96¢ 99¢ $336 $344 +$8 (+2%)
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 98¢ 100¢ $328 $334 +$6 (+2%)
Will Samuel L. Jackson attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 93¢ 96¢ $317 $328 +$11 (+3%)
Will Cutter Guanthier win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? No 100¢ 100¢ $308 $309 +$1 (+0%)
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 99¢ 96¢ $302 $293 −$9 (-3%)
Will Munetaka Murakami hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season? No 92¢ 98¢ $258 $274 +$17 (+6%)
Will George Strait attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 98¢ 89¢ $302 $274 −$28 (-9%)
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? No 87¢ 90¢ $262 $270 +$8 (+3%)
Will Quinn Hughes win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? No 99¢ 100¢ $267 $269 +$2 (+1%)
Will LeBron James win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 96¢ 100¢ $254 $265 +$11 (+4%)
Will Francisco Lindor win the 2026 National League Hank Aaron Award? No 97¢ 99¢ $220 $225 +$5 (+2%)
Will 50 Cent attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 97¢ 100¢ $217 $224 +$7 (+3%)
Will Nathan MacKinnon win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? No 100¢ 100¢ $218 $219 +$1 (+0%)
Will the New York Mets win 100 or more games during the 2026 MLB Regular Season? No 98¢ 99¢ $217 $219 +$2 (+1%)
Will Lady Gaga attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? No 95¢ 99¢ $197 $207 +$10 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 14 $382 −$251 -66%
Will Taylor Swift attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? Jun 14 $49 +$1 +2%
Will De'Aaron Fox lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Will Miles McBride lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total rebounds? Jun 14 $33 $0 +1%
Will Miles McBride lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 14 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Jose Alvarado lead the 2026 NBA Finals in 3-pointers made? Jun 14 $57 +$2 +3%
Will Miles McBride lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $81 +$2 +2%
Will Luke Kornet lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $67 +$1 +2%
Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season? Jun 14 $408 +$95 +23%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Record 20+ Rebounds in a Game? Jun 14 $898 +$107 +12%
Will OG Anunoby lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $155 +$4 +2%
Will Harrison Barnes lead the 2026 NBA Finals in total assists? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Will Timothee Chalamet attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? Jun 14 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Spike Lee attend Game 5 of the NBA Finals? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Nikolaj Ehlers lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in points? Jun 12 $14 $0 -1%
Will Mitch Marner lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in points? Jun 12 $46 −$12 -26%
Will Colton Sissons score the most goals in a single game during the 2 Jun 11 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Nic Dowd score the most goals in a single game during the 2026 NH Jun 11 $81 +$2 +2%
Will Rasmus Andersson score the most goals in a single game during the Jun 11 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Jordan Staal score the most goals in a single game during the 202 Jun 11 $22 +$1 +4%
Will Cam Skattebo attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $95 +$17 +18%
Will Aaron Judge attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Lady Gaga attend Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $15 $0 +3%
Will Carmelo Anthony attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $218 +$7 +3%
Will Donald Trump attend Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $406 +$4 +1%
Will Chris Rock attend Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $346 +$4 +1%
Will Mariska Hartigay attend Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $41 +$9 +21%
Will Timothee Chalamet attend Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Derek Jeter attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $260 +$16 +6%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $468 +$40 +9%
Will Jeremy Swayman win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? Jun 06 $210 +$5 +2%
Will Andrei Vasilevskiy win the 2025–2026 NHL Vezina Trophy? Jun 06 $36 +$3 +8%
Will Henrik Lundqvist attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $214 +$8 +4%
Will David Robinson attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $100 $0 +0%
MLB: Aaron Judge or Juan Soto to draw more walks? Jun 06 $40 $0 +1%
Will Nick Suzuki win the 2025–2026 NHL Frank J. Selke Trophy? Jun 05 $108 +$15 +14%
Will Gregg Popovich attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $211 +$9 +4%
Will Spike Lee attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $7 $0 +3%
Will Tracy Morgan attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $102 $0 +0%
Will Fat Joe attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $146 +$4 +2%
Will Timothee Chalamet attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $124 +$1 +1%
Will Lindy Ruff win the 2025–2026 NHL Jack Adams Award? Jun 03 $556 +$1 +0%
Will AJ Dybantsa be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 01 $30 $0 +1%
Will Kevin Durant win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Will Jamal Murray win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Will Darius Garland win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Will Stephen Curry win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $5 $0 +1%
Will LeBron James win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $9 $0 +4%
Will Alex Caruso win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP? May 31 $100 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% +$8,927
other 11% +$1,504
world 3% −$13
politics 0% +$73
weather 0% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Garrett Wilson attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $19 0m
Will Travis Scott attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $99 10m
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $99 10m
Will George Strait attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $10 10m
Will J.B. Smoove attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $28 11m
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $14 12m
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $31 12m
Will George Strait attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $124 14m
Will Emily Ratajkowski attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $78 14m
Will George Strait attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $72 15m
Will George Strait attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $71 15m
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $18 24m
Will George Strait attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $7 25m
Will George Strait attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $19 25m
Will Sabrina Carpenter attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $10 28m
Will J.B. Smoove attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $21 30m
Will J.B. Smoove attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $19 31m
Will Emily Ratajkowski attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $21 35m
Will Emily Ratajkowski attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $19 35m
Will Anne Hathaway attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $30 37m
Will Matthew McConaughey attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $78 38m
Will Matthew McConaughey attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $19 38m
Will Anne Hathaway attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $19 41m
Will Anne Hathaway attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $7 42m
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $6 44m
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $6 44m
Will Suni Lee attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $10 47m
Will Suni Lee attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $99 48m
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $99 48m
Will Tommy Lee Jones attend any game at the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $7 49m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +3.6% -6.3% 93% 14% -3.0%
≤30d 128 +1.3% -8.4% 98% 5% -8.5%
≤90d 332 +29.5% +17.1% 93% 14% -4.2%
all 355 +29.3% +17.0% 93% 15% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.0% 15% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here +5.8% 11% -12.9%
15% -4.4% 10% -21.3%
20% -13.8% 8% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,397.19 · official $16,396.91 (match) · 3500 history records