Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:14:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FF 0xffaf…64c6 sports 91 markets active 2d ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,065 (-17%) realized −$1,754 · open −$311
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%34W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$66est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$337now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$226
7 days−$1,258
14 days−$1,272
30 days−$1,480
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$339
other 35% −$859
world 5% −$288
culture 2% +$21
economics 2% −$229
finance 1% −$106
crypto 1% −$97
weather 0% −$53
politics 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -23.0% -30.3% 41% 35% -21.3%
≤30d 73 -26.4% -33.4% 40% 34% -23.0%
≤90d 76 -27.3% -34.2% 39% 34% -23.2%
all 84 -27.4% -34.3% 40% 36% -23.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.3% 36% -23.5%
10% -40.6% 31% -30.8%
15% -46.4% 21% -37.5%
20% -51.6% 17% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$76 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$337
Realized−$1,754
Unrealized−$311
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses34 / 50
Est. fees paid−$66
Open positions7
Markets (closed)84 / 91
History coverage107d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $126 $110 −$15 (-12%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $138 $81 −$56 (-41%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $302 $68 −$234 (-77%)
Will Iraq advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 95¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+9%)
Will Brazil win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 58¢ $29 $23 −$5 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+34%)
Russian strike on Poland by June 30? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $9 $2 −$6 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 16 $238 −$226 -95%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $69 +$4 +6%
France vs. Senegal: Team to Take First Corner Jun 16 $70 −$69 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $68 −$66 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $172 −$168 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $158 −$154 -98%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $69 −$68 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $165 +$35 +21%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 +$5 +31%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $153 +$47 +31%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 15 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $740 −$440 -59%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $103 −$102 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $928 +$77 +8%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 15 $227 +$100 +44%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $486 −$486 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $78 −$77 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 15 $304 +$196 +65%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -97%
Ecuador to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 14 $224 −$222 -99%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $35 −$34 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 14 $128 −$128 -99%
Netherlands to score first vs. Japan? Jun 14 $729 +$571 +78%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $55 −$30 -55%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $93 −$92 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $27 −$26 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $114 −$112 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $42 −$42 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $746 +$54 +7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $22 +$18 +79%
Scotland to score first vs. Haiti? Jun 14 $70 +$30 +44%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 14 $47 −$42 -90%
Will Scotland finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 14 $13 −$3 -21%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $103 +$117 +113%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $60 +$20 +34%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $26 −$26 -99%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Team to Take First Corner Jun 13 $45 +$15 +34%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $404 −$48 -12%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 13 $388 +$102 +26%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $334 −$332 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$10 +93%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 +$29 +262%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $216 46h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $218 46h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $22 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $5 2d
France vs. Senegal: Team to Take First Corner BUY France 69¢ $70 2d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 73¢ $53 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $68 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $172 2d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $158 2d
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 13¢ $69 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 13¢ $15 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $328 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $153 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 42¢ $56 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $103 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $699 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $165 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $21 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 60¢ $425 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 40¢ $305 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $503 3d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 81¢ $7 3d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 3d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 81¢ $292 3d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 81¢ $93 3d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 81¢ $93 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $61 3d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 77¢ $78 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $336.54 · official $336.54 (match) · 227 history records