Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:13:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
FF 0xffb0…d12c sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$112 (+26%) realized +$73 · open +$39
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%15W / 15L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$18
14 days+$84
30 days+$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$16
other 45% +$118
crypto 2% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+30.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.1% -5.8% 43% 43% -32.7%
≤30d 30 +43.9% +30.2% 50% 50% +11.7%
≤90d 30 +43.9% +30.2% 50% 50% +11.7%
all 30 +43.9% +30.2% 50% 50% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.2% 50% +11.7%
10% +17.7% 50% +1.0%
15% +6.3% 50% -8.8%
20% -4.1% 50% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +104% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$9 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$73
Unrealized+$39
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses15 / 15
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)30 / 36
History coverage15d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 53¢ $20 $49 +$29 (+146%)
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 35¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $10 +$10 +97%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 24 $3 +$7 +226%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$11 +105%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 +$11 +105%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $3 −$3 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$6 +62%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $60 +$37 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$28 +140%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$34 +1116%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $25 −$1 -4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +79%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $9 +$11 +119%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: Germany O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06- BUY 38¢ $5 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $10 5h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $20 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Switzerland vs. Canada BUY 32¢ $6 5d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 50¢ $10 5d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $3 5d
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 6d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $10 7d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 7d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $10 8d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 64¢ $10 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $3 8d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 61¢ $10 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $60 10d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over $1 10d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 47¢ $30 10d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $5 11d
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 11d
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 11d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 11d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY 30¢ $10 11d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $10 12d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 12d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY $10 12d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 12d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 11¢ $5 12d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $3 12d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.72 · official $68.72 (match) · 55 history records