Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:39:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
FF 0xffb2…bff1 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+16%) realized +$18 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%1W / 4L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$2
other 40% −$4
sports 8% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -5.5% -14.5% 0% 0% -14.5%
≤30d 5 +8.6% -1.8% 20% 20% -0.3%
≤90d 5 +8.6% -1.8% 20% 20% -0.3%
all 5 +8.6% -1.8% 20% 20% -0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.8% 20% -0.3%
10% -11.2% 20% -9.8%
15% -19.7% 20% -18.5%
20% -27.6% 20% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×8.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$18
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses1 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 8
History coverage15d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $14 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+35%)
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $5 $0 -6%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 11 $5 $0 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 +$5 +114%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $3 −$2 -62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.25 · official $24.25 (match) · 36 history records