Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:04:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

FF
0xffb4…b810
other · 44 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$99 -24%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$100 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$123
Realized−$100
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses11 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)33 / 44
History coverage96d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 11 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Down 16¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 80¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs Legacy 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will MrBeast say "Donate" or "Donated" during his next YouTube video? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Up 65¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B PARIVISION 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Up 67¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will MrBeast say "Red Line" during his next YouTube video? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will MrBeast say "Mystery Box" during his next YouTube video? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will MrBeast say "Briefcase" or "Suitcase" during his next YouTube video? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 30 $5 +$9 +172%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 27 $1 $0 -12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 27 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 17? May 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Will "Representing" be said 5+ times during Eurovision? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will MrBeast say "Donate" or "Donated" during his next YouTube video? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will MrBeast say "Red Line" during his next YouTube video? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will MrBeast say "Briefcase" or "Suitcase" during his next YouTube vid May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will MrBeast say "Mystery Box" during his next YouTube video? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? May 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B May 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 16 $5 +$15 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 20 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 12 $22 +$8 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 11 $30 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 11 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 10 $20 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$4 +36%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 10 $10 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 61% −$57
other 32% −$34
sports 5% −$6
world 1% $0
weather 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $3 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $5 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $15 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 1h
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 14d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 14d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 14d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 17d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 17d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 36¢ $5 17d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on May 17? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 28d
Will "Representing" be said 5+ times during Eurovision? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 28d
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28d
Will MrBeast say "Sponsor" or "Sponsored" or "Sponsoring" during his n BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28d
Will MrBeast say "Donate" or "Donated" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28d
Will MrBeast say "Red Line" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28d
Will MrBeast say "Briefcase" or "Suitcase" during his next YouTube vid BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28d
Will MrBeast say "Mystery Box" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28d
Will MrBeast say "Cash" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 28d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 28d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 28d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Legacy 59¢ $10 28d
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Group B BUY PARIVISION 62¢ $5 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-48.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 20 -55.3% -59.5% 15% 10% -52.2%
≤90d 21 -52.4% -56.9% 19% 10% -41.4%
all 33 -42.6% -48.0% 33% 21% -40.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.0% 21% -40.7%
10% -53.0% 15% -46.4%
15% -57.6% 12% -51.6%
20% -61.7% 6% -56.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.90 · official $122.91 (match) · 66 history records