Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:14:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffb4…07e5 sports 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-4%) realized −$8 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate55%24W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$14
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$2
sports 43% +$5
crypto 5% −$7
world 4% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +12.9% +2.2% 55% 55% +7.2%
≤30d 44 -1.3% -10.7% 55% 52% -13.8%
≤90d 44 -1.3% -10.7% 55% 52% -13.8%
all 44 -1.3% -10.7% 55% 52% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 52% -13.8%
10% -19.2% 48% -22.0%
15% -27.0% 45% -29.6%
20% -34.2% 32% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses24 / 20
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 49
History coverage14d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 64¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 6¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $2 +$4 +216%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $7 −$2 -25%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3 −$1 -20%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $3 +$1 +37%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands leading at halftime? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06 Jun 26 $3 +$2 +61%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $6 +$6 +105%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$1 -10%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $4 +$2 +44%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2 +$3 +158%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $4 +$2 +38%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $3 +$3 +93%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $2 +$2 +86%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $2 +$1 +64%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $7 +$2 +24%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 +$2 +73%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $4 +$3 +70%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 +$2 +41%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 +$4 +44%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$2 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $13 +$8 +60%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$2 -46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +5%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$6 +119%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $8 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 14h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY No 47¢ $2 27h
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 42h
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 42h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $4 2d
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-27? AND Wil BUY 45¢ $10 2d
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $2 3d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 58¢ $4 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 3d
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 3d
Netherlands leading at halftime? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06 BUY 61¢ $3 4d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 48¢ $6 4d
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 91¢ $5 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 51¢ $3 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 47¢ $2 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 4d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY 26¢ $5 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL 44¢ $9 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 47¢ $10 5d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 93¢ $6 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 88¢ $6 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 35¢ $2 6d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 38¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.72 · official $12.40 (match) · 102 history records