Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:55:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FF 0xffb8…e2e3 sports 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-24%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$13
other 17% −$10
world 9% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -11.2% -19.6% 40% 40% -12.9%
≤30d 5 -11.2% -19.6% 40% 40% -12.9%
≤90d 5 -11.2% -19.6% 40% 40% -12.9%
all 5 -11.2% -19.6% 40% 40% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.6% 40% -12.9%
10% -27.3% 40% -21.2%
15% -34.4% 40% -28.8%
20% -40.8% 40% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $17 +$13 +79%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $6 +$10 +165%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $10 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 9h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $17 15h
Japan leading at halftime? BUY No 50¢ $10 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $16 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $6 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 39h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.91 · official $9.91 (match) · 8 history records