Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffb8…b0e3 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58 (-11%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate76%22W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% −$23
other 18% −$20
economics 15% +$1
politics 15% +$1
tech 9% −$17
weather 8% +$2
crypto 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-25.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 14% -7.2%
≤30d 7 +4.5% -5.5% 100% 14% -7.2%
≤90d 16 -32.3% -38.7% 62% 6% -40.4%
all 29 -18.0% -25.8% 76% 3% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.8% 3% -20.4%
10% -32.9% 3% -28.0%
15% -39.4% 0% -34.9%
20% -45.4% 0% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$10 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses22 / 7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)29 / 31
History coverage153d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 10? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 10? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on April 10? Jun 16 $8 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Jun 16 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 10 Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 10? Jun 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 10 $2 −$1 -50%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Apr 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Apr 10 $16 −$16 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28? Apr 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? Apr 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 10 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Apr 10 $36 +$1 +2%
The Bondi Parlay (Feb 27) Mar 04 $19 $0 +1%
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025? Feb 25 $20 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by February 28? Feb 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 02 $1 $0 -50%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $12 +$1 +9%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 02 $20 +$2 +8%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 02 $27 +$1 +4%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 27 $11 +$1 +10%
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? Jan 22 $27 +$1 +2%
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? Jan 22 $27 $0 +0%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 19 $10 +$1 +5%
Israel strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 19 $26 +$1 +3%
Japanese Snap Election Called by June 30, 2026? Jan 15 $56 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 1h
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL Yes $1 67d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 10? BUY No 99¢ $5 67d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C or higher on April 10? BUY No 99¢ $8 67d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes $2 67d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on April 10 BUY No 99¢ $12 67d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C or higher on April 10? BUY No 78¢ $5 67d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 10? BUY No 99¢ $13 67d
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 10? BUY No 99¢ $13 67d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $12 104d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 2 to March 4, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8 104d
The Bondi Parlay (Feb 27) BUY No 99¢ $19 110d
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28? BUY No 99¢ $20 110d
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $20 110d
Will Trump deport 750,000 or more people in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $20 110d
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by February 28? SELL No 99¢ $40 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $2 134d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL Yes $0 134d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes $1 134d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase January 27-February 2? BUY No $1 134d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $14 134d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 98¢ $36 134d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 89¢ $10 134d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $12 140d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY No 96¢ $27 145d
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? BUY Yes 98¢ $27 145d
Will Melania say "Career" during AI talk on Friday? BUY No 100¢ $27 148d
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $11 148d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.96 · official $21.96 (match) · 64 history records