Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:31:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
FF 0xffb9…390a crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$65 (-2%) realized −$130 · open +$65
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate66%45W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$309now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$85
7 days−$85
14 days−$85
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$20
crypto 26% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +1.3% -8.3% 33% 33% -13.5%
≤30d 3 +1.3% -8.3% 33% 33% -13.5%
≤90d 21 -72.4% -75.1% 5% 5% -20.3%
all 68 -1.8% -11.1% 66% 41% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 41% -12.1%
10% -19.6% 35% -20.5%
15% -27.4% 25% -28.2%
20% -34.5% 18% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$22 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$309
Realized−$130
Unrealized+$65
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses45 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage110d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 79¢ 100¢ $244 $309 +$65 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $639 −$214 -34%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $437 +$200 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $854 −$70 -8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 1? Apr 16 $10 −$5 -51%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 6? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 3? Apr 16 $10 −$6 -57%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 7? Apr 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 4? Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on March 5? Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on March 6? Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on March 1? Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 4? Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 6? Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 2 Apr 16 $9 −$3 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 3? Apr 16 $19 −$18 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 5? Apr 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on March 3? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 1? Apr 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 1? Apr 16 $36 −$31 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 5? Apr 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 2? Apr 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 7? Mar 07 $5 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on March 7? Mar 07 $3 +$2 +52%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on March 6? Mar 06 $5 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $35 −$30 -86%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on March 6? Mar 06 $2 +$3 +108%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 6? Mar 06 $4 +$1 +12%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 6? Mar 06 $3 +$2 +59%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $5 $0 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $29 +$16 +55%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 6? Mar 06 $27 +$18 +65%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 5? Mar 05 $5 $0 -7%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on March 5? Mar 05 $3 +$2 +85%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on March 5? Mar 05 $1 +$4 +257%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 5? Mar 05 $5 $0 +10%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 5? Mar 05 $3 +$2 +46%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on March 5? Mar 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on March 5? Mar 05 $5 $0 +3%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on March 5? Mar 05 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $18 +$2 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $15 +$5 +38%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $39 +$11 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $31 +$19 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $58 +$11 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 5? Mar 05 $64 +$6 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $3 +$2 +70%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 4? Mar 04 $9 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $14 −$9 -65%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 4? Mar 04 $3 +$2 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 79¢ $246 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 48¢ $246 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $418 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $418 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $424 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 62¢ $425 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 92¢ $639 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $437 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $352 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 47¢ $347 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $502 28h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 7? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 103d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on March 7? BUY No 66¢ $3 103d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 7? BUY No 98¢ $5 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 70¢ $4 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 6? BUY No 59¢ $3 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 6? BUY No 71¢ $4 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 6? BUY No 66¢ $3 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 6? BUY No 60¢ $3 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 6? BUY No 65¢ $3 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 6? BUY No 60¢ $3 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 103d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on March 6? BUY No 48¢ $2 103d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on March 6? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 103d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on March 6? BUY No 96¢ $5 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 6? BUY No 65¢ $3 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 6? BUY No 60¢ $3 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 6? BUY No 62¢ $3 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $309.04 · official $309.04 (match) · 420 history records