Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffbb…5356 crypto 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$362 (-12%) realized −$362 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate58%40W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$58
7 days−$58
14 days−$58
30 days−$385
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 74% −$73
sports 26% −$312
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -0.8% -10.2% 80% 14% -11.9%
≤30d 69 -16.0% -24.0% 58% 13% -18.1%
≤90d 69 -16.0% -24.0% 58% 13% -18.1%
all 69 -16.0% -24.0% 58% 13% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 13% -18.1%
10% -31.3% 9% -26.0%
15% -37.9% 4% -33.1%
20% -44.0% 3% -39.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$18 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$362
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses40 / 29
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 69
History coverage27d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$36 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $55 −$48 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $98 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $98 −$22 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $51 +$64 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $49 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $49 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $49 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $50 +$8 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $49 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $49 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $49 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $71 −$71 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $70 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $70 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 18 $71 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $70 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 18 $70 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $70 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $70 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $70 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $85 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $70 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $70 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $75 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $75 −$2 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 18 $80 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 18 $70 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$15 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$5 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$2 +19%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $55 −$27 -49%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $214 −$146 -68%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kings May 23 $511 −$121 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET May 23 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 23 $3 −$2 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Down 24¢ $14 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $50 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $57 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 235 history records