Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:23:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffbf…1184 sports 1247 markets active 0h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$844 (-4%) realized −$821 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate63%777W / 466L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$123est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$3
14 days+$96
30 days+$292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$704
crypto 15% −$254
other 1% −$23
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -17.9% -25.7% 57% 50% -9.8%
≤30d 227 +4.3% -5.7% 63% 61% -3.5%
≤90d 698 +0.3% -9.3% 64% 60% -10.5%
all 1243 -2.3% -11.6% 63% 55% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 55% -13.5%
10% -20.0% 43% -21.8%
15% -27.8% 32% -29.4%
20% -34.8% 20% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$15 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized−$821
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses777 / 466
Est. fees paid−$123
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1243 / 1247
History coverage159d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1243 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs 4ikibamboni 97¢ 69¢ $80 $57 −$23 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06- Jun 24 $21 −$10 -49%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 24 $101 +$26 +26%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner Jun 24 $10 +$2 +17%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $10 −$8 -83%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $10 +$2 +16%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo Jun 23 $13 +$5 +38%
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Enjoy (+1.5) Jun 23 $111 +$27 +24%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner Jun 23 $20 +$14 +68%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $100 +$5 +5%
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$4 +20%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs L1ga Team (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $10 +$3 +26%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $101 +$20 +20%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG - Game 1 Winner Jun 22 $10 +$1 +9%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 22 $10 +$3 +32%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $15 +$4 +24%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 +$20 +97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs VP.Prodigy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$8 -79%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $10 −$7 -69%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Jun 19 $20 +$8 +38%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $25 −$8 -30%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $25 +$2 +7%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$8 -82%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$7 +64%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 4 Winne Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $15 +$34 +223%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $20 +$5 +23%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $4 +$1 +14%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$3 +32%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $10 +$6 +59%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $12 +$3 +26%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$6 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY 4ikibamboni 97¢ $80 2m
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL L1ga Team 6¢ $7 2m
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY L1ga Team 82¢ $101 9m
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06- SELL 5¢ $10 17m
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos SELL 4ikibamboni 20¢ $30 17m
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Clos BUY 4ikibamboni 66¢ $101 1h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MOUZ 100¢ $126 3h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner SELL MOUZ 100¢ $12 4h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MOUZ 79¢ $101 4h
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 85¢ $10 4h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-2 BUY 12¢ $23 15h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06- BUY 10¢ $21 15h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A SELL GamerLegion 14¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 80¢ $10 16h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 2 Winner SELL GamerLegion 100¢ $12 17h
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Acend - Map 2 Winner BUY GamerLegion 86¢ $10 17h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo SELL 4ikibamboni 100¢ $18 18h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 76¢ $10 19h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Enjoy (+1.5) SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $137 20h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 4ikibamboni (BO5) - European Pro League Playo BUY 4ikibamboni 61¢ $3 21h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Enjoy (+1.5) BUY Team Spirit 81¢ $101 22h
Game Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Enjoy (+1.5) BUY Team Spirit 72¢ $10 22h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner SELL OG 99¢ $34 24h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 4 Winner BUY OG 58¢ $20 25h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Bald 99¢ $105 26h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Bald 94¢ $100 27h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner SELL Grind Back 1¢ $0 27h
Dota 2: OG vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 76¢ $20 27h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25 BUY 11¢ $21 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 42h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.31 · official $79.32 · 2860 history records