Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:51:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
FF 0xffc0…4657 world 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$27 (+3%) realized +$27 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +103% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +84% what you keep after slip
Net edge+84%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate75%15W / 5L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% +$26
other 17% −$1
politics 1% $0
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+83.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 6 +333.0% +291.8% 33% 17% -8.9%
≤90d 13 +156.3% +131.9% 62% 15% -6.8%
all 20 +102.9% +83.6% 75% 15% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +83.6% 15% -6.8%
10% +66.0% 5% -15.7%
15% +50.0% 5% -23.9%
20% +35.3% 5% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 77% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +103% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +202% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×3.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.94 per $1 lost it wins $13.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses15 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage470d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $56 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $139 +$9 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $56 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $63 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $109 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $63 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $52 +$3 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $70 +$13 +18%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $38 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 22 $41 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $38 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $38 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 19 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 23 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election? Mar 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 10 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $57 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $56 6h
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 22¢ $0 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $55 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 87¢ $56 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $20 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $42 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $63 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $4 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $40 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $15 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $18 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $20 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 28d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $4 28d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $4 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $18 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 29d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $18 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $55 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $55 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 33¢ $58 30d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $52 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 90¢ $55 30d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 85¢ $52 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $52 30d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $43 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records