Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:33:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffc5…67a5 weather 337 markets active 3h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$155 (+8%) realized +$155 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate24%82W / 255L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day30.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$127
14 days+$154
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 88% −$3
tech 5% +$26
crypto 5% −$5
other 2% −$9
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 +11.7% +1.1% 24% 21% +8.6%
≤30d 263 -8.6% -17.3% 26% 24% -2.6%
≤90d 337 -13.5% -21.7% 24% 22% -6.5%
all 337 -13.5% -21.7% 24% 22% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.7% 22% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.2% 20% -15.5%
15% -36.0% 18% -23.6%
20% -42.3% 16% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$155
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses82 / 255
Open positions0
Markets (closed)337 / 337
History coverage41d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day30.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 337 Trades
no open positions (203 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$2 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $17 +$151 +905%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $14 −$7 -54%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 −$2 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 18? Jun 17 $12 −$2 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 17 $17 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 18? Jun 17 $7 −$4 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$6 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $15 +$8 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $5 −$3 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 18 Jun 17 $3 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $4 −$2 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 18? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -53%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 18? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 16? Jun 17 $9 −$1 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $7 −$5 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $50 −$23 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 17? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 17? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 16? Jun 16 $9 −$7 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$5 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $30 −$19 -63%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -81%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 16? Jun 16 $14 −$9 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 15 $74 +$8 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$6 +205%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 −$3 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 +$23 +670%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $13 −$13 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 28¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 21¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 25¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? SELL No 26¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 15¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 15¢ $3 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 11¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 7¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 8¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL No 8¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 10¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 10¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 12¢ $1 10h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 20¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 20¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 18? SELL Yes 17¢ $3 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 84¢ $21 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 84¢ $21 13h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 67¢ $7 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 71¢ $9 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 72¢ $53 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 66¢ $0 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 66¢ $9 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 66¢ $23 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 60¢ $11 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 18? SELL Yes 62¢ $3 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1266 history records