Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:25:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FF 0xffc8…cd31 crypto 306 markets active 1h ago coverage 35d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$92 (-5%) realized −$65 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate55%161W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$30
7 days−$51
14 days−$63
30 days−$91
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$26
crypto 40% −$59
sports 7% −$48
tech 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -29.8% -36.5% 43% 40% -17.2%
≤30d 266 -3.6% -12.7% 54% 45% -17.4%
≤90d 294 -5.0% -14.0% 55% 46% -18.7%
all 294 -5.0% -14.0% 55% 46% -18.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 46% -18.7%
10% -22.2% 29% -26.5%
15% -29.8% 15% -33.6%
20% -36.6% 9% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

35d coverage
Net worth$367
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses161 / 133
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)294 / 306
History coverage35d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 294 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 60¢ $213 $167 −$46 (-21%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $56 $61 +$5 (+9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+36%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $46 $37 −$9 (-19%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $25 $31 +$6 (+24%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $25 $30 +$5 (+21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $8 +$12 +151%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $10 −$5 -53%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $36 −$11 -29%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $162 −$160 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $129 +$143 +111%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $70 −$30 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$1 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$3 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 10 $8 −$6 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $151 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $63 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 15¢ $26 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 19h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 19h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $73 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $8 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 26h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 2d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $25 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 9¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden win on 2026- BUY 6¢ $26 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $8 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $121 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 31¢ $20 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 49¢ $51 4d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 3¢ $26 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $272 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $40 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $41 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $36 4d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $39 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $41 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $367.45 · official $392.45 · 777 history records