Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:34:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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FF 0xffc9…a87e crypto 1192 markets active 0h ago coverage 20d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 20d only
✗ bot/MM pace (101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$71 (-2%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate79%943W / 257L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day100.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$33
7 days−$84
14 days−$85
30 days−$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$184
sports 4% +$12
other 0% −$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (101 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 337 -4.9% -14.0% 75% 32% -14.1%
≤30d 1200 -1.7% -11.1% 79% 32% -13.4%
≤90d 1200 -1.7% -11.1% 79% 32% -13.4%
all 1200 -1.7% -11.1% 79% 32% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 32% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 16% -21.7%
15% -27.3% 9% -29.3%
20% -34.5% 5% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses943 / 257
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1200 / 1192
History coverage20d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day100.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1200 Trades
no open positions (43 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $14 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$2 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +118%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -90%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$2 -18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +14%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $22 +$8 +35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $13 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $24 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $3 +$1 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $14 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $13 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 18 $11 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 31m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 5¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $10 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $3 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 51m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 33¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $2 55m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 57m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 58m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records