Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T14:41:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffca…0b64 sports 162 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$569 (-7%) realized −$455 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%81W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day39.2pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$125now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$360
7 days−$786
14 days−$499
30 days−$499
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$751
other 15% −$28
crypto 2% +$114
world 1% +$53
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -7.0% -15.8% 49% 49% -20.1%
≤30d 155 +1.9% -7.8% 52% 52% -15.0%
≤90d 155 +1.9% -7.8% 52% 52% -15.0%
all 155 +1.9% -7.8% 52% 52% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover39.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 52% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 52% -23.1%
15% -24.7% 50% -30.5%
20% -32.0% 45% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$55 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$125
Realized−$455
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses81 / 74
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions6
Markets (closed)155 / 162
History coverage10d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day39.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Leviatán Esports 42¢ 45¢ $62 $66 +$4 (+7%)
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Leviatán Esports 53¢ 48¢ $42 $38 −$4 (-9%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Leviatán Esports 35¢ 26¢ $21 $16 −$5 (-26%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Leviatán Esports 34¢ 18¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-46%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner Phantom 32¢ 0¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner FOKUS 66¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $76 +$76 +101%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $56 −$56 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $39 −$39 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 21 $59 −$59 -100%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playof Jun 21 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 21 $46 −$46 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $49 −$49 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $85 −$85 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh Jun 20 $42 +$6 +15%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 20 $0 $0 +144%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $27 +$20 +75%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $54 −$26 -49%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $56 +$44 +78%
Map Handicap: LEV (-2.5) vs EDward Gaming (+2.5) Jun 20 $2 +$1 +53%
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs EDward Gaming (+1.5) Jun 20 $26 +$29 +112%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 3 Winner Jun 20 $33 +$17 +51%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $41 +$19 +46%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $24 +$16 +66%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $45 −$45 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $64 +$36 +56%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $3 −$3 -99%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $2 +$1 +76%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $48 +$36 +75%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $117 −$117 -100%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $54 +$36 +66%
Spread: Canada (-4.5) Jun 18 $59 +$36 +61%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $46 +$38 +83%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $17 +$13 +75%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 +$7 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $29 +$15 +51%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $28 +$12 +43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $36 −$18 -51%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $66 −$66 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $40 +$18 +45%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $45 +$15 +34%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $38 +$32 +87%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $24 +$26 +112%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 42¢ $62 4m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 35¢ $3 15m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 35¢ $18 15m
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $9 21m
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner SELL TDK 100¢ $152 22m
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner BUY FOKUS 66¢ $40 1h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 53¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY TDK 49¢ $76 1h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner BUY Phantom 32¢ $48 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner BUY Phantom 33¢ $42 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner BUY Phantom 33¢ $8 2h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) BUY Leviatán Esports 53¢ $38 2h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner BUY FOKUS 54¢ $54 2h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 38¢ $3 13h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 65¢ $53 14h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 41¢ $49 14h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh SELL Bia Mesquita 100¢ $48 15h
UFC Fight Night: Melissa Mullins vs. Bia Mesquita (Women's Bantamweigh BUY Bia Mesquita 87¢ $42 15h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 59¢ $49 16h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 59¢ $3 16h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 59¢ $6 16h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 59¢ $1 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $27 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Spirit 54¢ $27 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $11 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $16 22h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Spirit 33¢ $10 22h
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) BUY Spirit 33¢ $3 22h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Spirit 41¢ $0 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.28 · official $125.28 (match) · 496 history records