Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:22:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
FF 0xffcb…08e4 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,218 (-58%) realized −$1,217 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%5W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$470
other 36% −$716
world 1% −$30
crypto 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-31.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +11.6% +1.0% 100% 100% +1.0%
≤30d 1 +11.6% +1.0% 100% 100% +1.0%
≤90d 15 -24.6% -31.8% 33% 33% -67.1%
all 15 -24.6% -31.8% 33% 33% -67.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.8% 33% -67.1%
10% -38.3% 20% -70.3%
15% -44.3% 20% -73.2%
20% -49.8% 20% -75.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -64% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -64% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$126 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$1,217
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses5 / 10
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage82d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance Canada 75¢ 72¢ $28 $26 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 28 $44 +$5 +12%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 18 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 26 $3 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 26 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 26 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 26 $6 −$2 -41%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $740 −$732 -99%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Apr 13 $1,000 −$444 -44%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Apr 11 $48 −$48 -99%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Apr 10 $17 +$14 +82%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $15 +$21 +137%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Mumbai Indians Apr 07 $151 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: Team to Advance BUY Canada 75¢ $28 1h
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 79¢ $22 3h
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild SELL Thiago Seyboth Wild 78¢ $22 3h
Piracicaba: Gonzalo Villanueva vs Thiago Seyboth Wild BUY Thiago Seyboth Wild 79¢ $22 3h
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad SELL Sunrisers Hyderabad 100¢ $9 41d
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 55¢ $5 41d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $0 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $3 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 63d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $740 76d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 36¢ $556 76d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 64¢ $1,000 76d
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 77¢ $48 78d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore SELL Royal Challengers Bangalore 5¢ $1 79d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore 13¢ $2 79d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore SELL Royal Challengers Bangalore 12¢ $2 79d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore BUY Royal Challengers Bangalore 5¢ $1 79d
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Royal Challengers Bangalore SELL Rajasthan Royals 95¢ $28 79d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.49 · official $26.49 (match) · 46 history records