Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:08:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
FF 0xffcb…2ae1 other 130 markets active 6h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$40 (-0%) realized −$40 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%18W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$24
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 32% −$14
other 30% −$22
sports 16% −$8
crypto 7% −$1
culture 5% −$5
finance 4% −$3
economics 3% −$2
world 3% $0
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -1.0% -10.4% 8% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 67 -0.8% -10.2% 7% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 116 -0.5% -10.0% 12% 0% -9.8%
all 129 -0.5% -10.0% 14% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$40
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses18 / 111
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage99d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 98¢ 98¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $64 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $55 −$2 -3%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $26 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $214 −$1 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $49 −$5 -10%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $276 −$3 -1%
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $219 −$1 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $112 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $114 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 13 $51 +$1 +1%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -3%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $97 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $67 −$1 -1%
Will Colombia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $108 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $56 +$1 +2%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $51 $0 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $260 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 09 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $53 −$1 -2%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $56 −$1 -1%
Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $62 $0 -0%
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $112 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $65 −$1 -1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 05 $43 −$1 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $59 $0 -1%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $116 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 03 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $31 $0 -0%
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 02 $46 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $114 −$2 -2%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $49 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $261 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $59 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $208 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 6h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $64 7h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $64 14h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $57 14h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $57 22h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $53 23h
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $55 27h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $48 28h
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $49 34h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 34h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 40h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $53 41h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $54 46h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 93¢ $46 47h
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $46 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $26 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $26 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $57 2d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 94¢ $54 2d
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $55 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 87¢ $44 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $34 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $15 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 3d
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 91¢ $40 3d
Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 91¢ $41 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $58 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $59 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.37 · official $54.37 (match) · 475 history records